Features

The unsustainable US recovery
06 June, 2017, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
Even the limited and unsteady recovery of growth in the US a decade after the 2008 crisis is based on an increase in debt that renders it unsustainable.
Where will Global Demand come from?
23 May, 2017, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
As the US reduces its role as engine of global demand, there are no signs that other economies will be able to pick up the slack. The mercantilist approach exemplified by Germany is creating net global slowdown.
Lopsided industrialisation
09 May, 2017, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
Recent trends in the organisational form of units in the registered manufacturing sector suggest that India’s factory sector is not just abnormal but backward to boot.
The De-digitisation of India
25 April, 2017, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
Despite the government’s efforts to digitise the Indian economy forcibly, non-cash forms of payment appear to have declined as more currency has been made available to the public. This points to major flaws in the government’s coercive approach and the underlying rationale for cashlessness.
The State in Chinese Banking
11 April, 2017, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
After four decades of financial reform China’s banking sector is still dominated by publicly owned institutions. But continuity in ownership does not mean that banking behaviour does not change.
ICT: Implications of imbalanced growth
14 March, 2017, Chirashree Das Gupta
An analysis of India's ICT performance suggests that software export success tends to hide both imbalances in production and their adverse balance of payments fall-out.
Marital Breakdown in India
28 February, 2017, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
Although divorce rates are low in India, separation is the dominant form of marital dissolution, and this is especially problematic for women because of the uncertain legal status and lack of rights.
Bond Market Reversal
14 February, 2017, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
Post-Trump expectations of a shift back from an easy monetary policy with low interest rates to reliance on a fiscal stimulus for growth are reversing trends in global bond markets.
Spreading light: Are the Modi government’s electricity promises being fulfilled?
31 January, 2017, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
The government's claim that it has ensured electricity for all does not seem to be warranted by the evidence.
Waning Stimuli
17 January, 2017, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
Banks strapped with stressed assets are holding back on lending, dampening in the process the principal stimulus to growth in recent years. And there are no alternative routes to growth in sight.
The Growth of Digital Payments
03 January, 2017, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
In the context of the failed demonetisation and continued shortage of currency, the government continues to push cashless digital payments. What are the implications for Indians?
Age of Uncertainty
23 December, 2016, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
With the US Federal Reserve deciding to exit the era of low interest rates even when growth in the rest of the world economy falters or remains sluggish, economic uncertainty intensifies.
Can Developing Asia Hold its Ground?
06 December, 2016, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
Capital flight from Asia points to investor concerns about both political processes in the big Asian developing economies and medium-term economic prospects.
India's Export Collapse
30 November, 2016, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
A peculiar combination of factors, besides the global recession, explains India's poor export performance in recent times.
How Successful is China's Economic Rebalancing?
08 November, 2016, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
China's rapid economic growth has slowed recently – but does this reflect the desired rebalancing of the economy away from investment to consumption and wage-led growth?
Housing Market Frenzy in China
13 October, 2016, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
The urban housing market in China is experiencing a bubble that is driving property prices to unbelievable levels in some of the major cities. But the divergence in recent trends in house prices suggests that this bubble may soon burst.
The Pulses Conundrum
29 September, 2016, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
As inflation in the prices of pulses gives way to a price decline, a misplaced argument that the government should not regulate the private trade to curb speculation and stabilise prices is being expressed.
India and Indians at Seventy Plus
08 September, 2016, Jayati Ghosh
For most of the Indian people aged 70 or more, their sheer survival may be the most positive aspect of their lives since the state instead of taking any measures of social protection puts the burden of their care on families without considering their own economic situation.
Unexpected Inflation
02 September, 2016, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
The return of inflation, even if moderate, at a time when India is experiencing a normal monsoon and after a long period of inflation-targeted monetary policy is surprising.
Care Work as the Work of the Future
16 August, 2016, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
As technological change threatens many different kinds of jobs, the significance of direct face-to-face interaction required in much care work means that it is unlikely to be as adversely affected. What does this mean for the future requirements of care workers?
The Return to Retail Lending
02 August, 2016, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
After having retreated from retail lending in the years since 2005-06, banks burdened by NPAs in areas like infrastructure seem to be returning to the retail market. How far can this go?
25 Years of Economic Reforms: Agriculture
27 July, 2016, Jayati Ghosh
The inability to resolve the pressing concerns with respect to food production, distribution and availability is one of the important failures of the entire economic reform process.
The Real Banking Problem
12 July, 2016, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
Recognizing bad assets and writing them off may not resolve the banking problem, since the new financial order requires banks to lend to those who seem more prone to default.
The Global "New Normal" Is Not New- But it is still a real concern
21 June, 2016, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
Global growth rates of the last five years are similar to those in the past, but now they are accompanied by unprecedented monetary expansion that seems to have little impact.
Bad Loans, Lending Behaviour and Growth
07 June, 2016, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
As interested observers focus on the bad loans, accumulating in the books of India’s commercial banks, the implications it has for lending behaviour and growth are less explored.
And Now, Price Deflation in India and China?
31 May, 2016, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
While it was presumed the developing world, especially the more prominent emerging markets, were less prone to price deflation, data from China and India show trends of declining producer prices.
A Picture of Inequality
10 May, 2016, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
The government's decision to release income class-wise details on tax returns allows an assessment of the extent of inequality in the distribution of income among tax payers.
When Commodity Prices Fall
26 April, 2016, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
The decline in primary commodity prices over the past four years particularly last year, shows that financialisation of commodities has amplified and exaggerated instabilities and fluctuations.
On Data and Decision-making
13 April, 2016, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
Wide differences in official data based on series with different base years or from alternative sources lead to questions about their relevance for decision making.
How much has Global Economic Power Really Shifted?
31 March, 2016, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
This article analyses the significance of shift in global economic power from the North to the South and what exactly it means for the countries in developing Asia like India.
Capital Bleeds from Emerging Asia
02 February, 2016, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
Capital flight, in 2015, from the emerging markets, especially those in Asia, was much worse than has been previously estimated. This augurs ill for the coming year.
Is the Rupee "Weakening"
18 January, 2016, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
While much concern being expressed about the weakening rupee, it is not the past record that is the problem; rather, its likely direction in the near future is a cause for worry.
Growth, Imports and Inequality: Explaining the persistently high trade deficit in India
31 December, 2015, Zico Dasgupta & Subhanil Chowdhury
This paper provides an explanation of the asymmetric relationship between the GDP growth rate and the trade deficit and looks at the mechanism through which the trade deficit in India has increased.
Stock Market: Does patience pay
21 December, 2015, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
The perception that investors looking for above average returns can turn to the stock market so long as they are willing to stay invested for extended periods doesn’t hold.
The Continuing Debt Problem in Asia
08 December, 2015, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
Private household debt is going to be a major concern for many Asian economies as excessive household debt and falling realty prices combine to create a potentially potent mix.
Capital Goods Conundrum
24 November, 2015, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
While the Government appears to recognise the importance of expanding and strengthening India's capital goods industry, the policy signals it sends seem contrary and confusing.
The Shrinking of Global Imbalances
10 November, 2015, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
Global imbalances in the current account do appear to have come down in the aggregate but the pattern and the outcomes are different from what was anticipated.
Debt and Asia's Success
03 November, 2015, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
An improved dataset from the Bank of International Settlements reveals that the post crisis 'success' of Asia in terms of growth was built on a pile of debt.
Understanding "Secular Stagnation"
15 October, 2015, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
This article discusses the issue of the "new normal" of low or stagnating output growth that the analysts and reports of international organisations are talking about.
Mutual Fund Mystery
29 September, 2015, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
Underlying a recent surge in assets managed by mutual funds is a revival of retail investor interest in equity at a time when foreign institutional investors are turning bearish.
Assessing a Volatile Market
11 September, 2015, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
Increased volatility in the Indian stock and debt markets and its consequences, question whether these markets, as structured now, deliver positive net economic benefits.
China's RenMinBi Strategy
18 August, 2015, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
The sudden depreciation of Chinese currency, that has impacted global markets, may be an attempt to revive export growth and provide stimulus to growth to the flagging economy.
China's Troubled Stock Markets
04 August, 2015, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
The boom bust cycles in China's stock markets question the government's view that there is much to be gained from deregulating them.
Pachhwara Coal Mines, Jharkhand: Privatisation of coal mining and rights of adivasis
21 July, 2015, Vikas Rawal & Prakash Viplav
Privatisation of coal mining in Amrapara has facilitated a loot of national resources and deprived the poor adivasi peasants of the benefits that rightfully belong to them.
Economic Forecasts and Reality: Should we believe the World Bank?
23 June, 2015, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
The World Bank’s latest projections for GDP growth are pessimistic, especially for developing countries. But given its poor track record, how far they are reliable is doubtful.
Looking to the US
09 June, 2015, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
In a curious turn of events, the US economy rather than the Asian emerging markets is now expected to lead a global recovery. But the reason and implications are not so clear.
How Food was Moved to the Margins of the New Household Budget
29 May, 2015, Rahul Goswami
An enquiry into the private consumption expenditure indicates that a huge majority of India’s population are experiencing food insecurity in one or several forms.
No Support for the Rupee
12 May, 2015, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
Recently released merchandise trade figures for the first half of 2014-15, suggest that trade fundamentals offer no support to the rupee under strain because of an FII retreat.
The Bursting of China's Housing Bubble
28 April, 2015, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
The party is over in China's real estate markets, but the policy makers are trying to revive it through financial deregulation and monetary easing that is unlikely to work.
Will the Recent Changes in Labour Laws Usher in 'Acche Din' for the Working Class?
23 April, 2015, Anamitra Roychowdhury
The recent changes in the labour laws are overwhelmingly in favour of the employers and detrimental to the cause of the working class.
Indian Exceptionalism
15 April, 2015, C.P. Chandrasekhar
Official satisfaction with the decision by Moody's to raise India's sovereign rating may be ignoring the possibility that the agency missed an important source of vulnerability.
China and India in the World Economy
31 March, 2015, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
As there is excitement about the possibility of India overtaking China in terms of GDP growth, it is useful to remind ourselves of the relative positions of the two economies.
Recapitalising India's Public Sector Bank
24 March, 2015, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
The push to recapitalise public sector banks by raising capital through equity issues, on the grounds that Basel III needs make it unavoidable, may be a route to privatisation.
Ever Expanding Debt Bubbles in China and India
03 March, 2015, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
Even though China appears to have a much higher levels of debt- GDP ratio, India’s debt situation with much lower levels of corporate debt may prove to be more problematic.
Households and India’s Stock Markets
17 February, 2015, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
Whilst India's stock markets touch dizzying heights, households are withdrawing from the market as they are influenced more by returns registered in short periods.
Oil: The big 100 per cent story
02 February, 2015, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
In a puzzling development, some financial markets registered a decline in the wake of the recent dramatic fall in oil prices. So, is the oil price fall not all good news?
Who's Really Paying for Oil
07 January, 2015, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
As the central government raises excise duties on petroleum products yet again, it is the poor that end up paying the price.
Where's the "Missing Middle" in Indian Industry?
09 December, 2014, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
While the problem of missing middle is taken for granted in the Indian industry, official data reveal that medium sized firms actually dominate in both employment and output.
Debt in Asian vulnerability
25 November, 2014, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
Amidst stock market euphoria, the growing international debt exposure of certain Asian countries, particularly Hong Kong, China and India, is a matter of major concern.
Recent Changes in Labour Laws: An exploratory note
12 November, 2014, Anamitra Roychowdhury
This article explores the possible implications of amending the Contract Labour Act, 1970 and questions the rationale behind amending the Industrial Disputes Act, 1947.
The Difficult Art of Economic Diversification
11 November, 2014, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
Indonesia provides a stark example of an economy that diversified its pattern of trade and domestic production, only to relapse back into a dependence on primary exports.
Exploiting the Oil Price Crash
30 October, 2014, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
The government has decided to exploit the recent sharp decline in oil prices to push deregulation. But this may not help growth nor prove wise in the medium term.
The Cotton Conundrum
24 October, 2014, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
China’s decision to liquidate its large raw cotton stocks accumulated as part of a policy of supporting domestic production is hurting the world’s cotton exporters.
Factory Wages in India
14 October, 2014, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
The demand for labour market reform is absurd as the wages of the workers account for less than half the total wage and salary bill in the organised industry.
Is Rising Income Inequality Inevitable?
16 September, 2014, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
In spite of globalisation and technological change, patterns of inequality within a country reflect internal political economy, and can be changed by political choice.
The Bond Rush in Indian Markets
09 September, 2014, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
The government’s incentives to foreign investors have resulted in a sharp rise in FPI investments in India’s debt market that does impose costs on the nation.
Are Women Really Working Less in India?
21 August, 2014, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
Recent NSS data indicate significant declines in Female work force participation rates with a shift from paid work to unpaid domestic activities for both rural and urban women.
India's High Technology Deficit
05 August, 2014, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
There has been a gradual decline of US and EU dominance over hitech manufacturing, with emerging economies posing a challenge. But, unfortunately, India has lagged far behind.
Money, Debt, and Deficit
30 July, 2014, Arnab Kumar Chowdhury
As debt is necessary to sustain the monetary system, hypothetical repayment of all debts can make the monetary system collapse and has the capacity to stall the real economy.
India as a Manufacturing Hub
08 July, 2014, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
The strategy of the new government to revive India’s manufacturing sector by exploiting global value chains is well known, but how much success this will bring is doubtful.
The Way Forward for the Economy
07 July, 2014, Prabhat Patnaik
The Indian economy cannot be revived by the neo liberal policies of austerity and incentives as only fiscal intervention can break the deadlock of stagflationary tendencies.
Locking Out Financial Regulation
25 June, 2014, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
The proposed deal on trade in financial services that has just been exposed by Wikileaks has serious implications even for countries that are not involved in the negotiations.
India's External Resilience
17 June, 2014, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
The fall in the current account deficit of India may seem heartening but this is possibly because of a temporary respite in the areas where India’s vulnerability resides.
UPA-2 and Welfare Schemes
29 May, 2014, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
Contrary to the argument that UPA-2 wasted too much money on "populist" schemes, it actually neglected and spent less on these important welfare initiatives than UPA-1.
Contract Workers in Manufacturing
29 April, 2014, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
Contractualisation of work has become a pervasive feature of both public and private sectors in all three major sectors of Indian industry.
The Burden of Corporate Debt
15 April, 2014, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
The corporate profitability in India is on a decline and the rising interest cost, besides the worsening economic environment, seems to underlie this profits squeeze.
Have Workers in Gujarat Benefited from "Development"
09 April, 2014, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
In the backdrop of a much talked about Gujarat model, the authors examine the state of casual workers in Gujarat only to find them to be among the worst of anywhere in India.
How Vulnerable are Emerging Economies?
06 March, 2014, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
Developing countries face a complex set of challenges in the changing global scenario that does not seem to be factored into economic policies in most countries.
Off-target on Monetary Policy
25 February, 2014, C.P. Chandrasekhar
The Urjit Patel recommendations for RBI to pursue the single objective of inflation targeting via interest rate control follows textbook Neo Keynesian model that belie recent experiences.
A Reality Check on the Labour Market Flexibility Argument in India
05 February, 2014, Anamitra Roychowdhury
It is wrong to identify labour laws as the major reason for slow growth in employment, since employment protection laws apply only to a subset of the total organised sector.
Is Social Discrimination in Indian Labour Markets Coming Down?
04 February, 2014, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
Indian labour markets are segmented by gender, caste and other social categories. But recent evidence of the wage gaps suggests some improvement, especially in rural areas.
The Employment Challenge
22 January, 2014, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
Although every significant country of the world is still in the midst of growth deceleration, forecasters confidently hold out hopes of a recovery.
The Rural Employment Guarantee under UPA-2
07 January, 2014, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
After the initial success in enacting the MNREGA, the central government’s enthusiasm for its own programme seems to have diminished in its second term.
The Food Price Rise Acceleration in Rural India
31 December, 2013, Rahul Goswami
For crop cultivators and rural labour, the CPI – a measure of the rise in the food prices – is showing an accelerated upward trend, particularly October 2011 onwards.
Animal Spirits
24 December, 2013, C.P. Chandrasekhar
As GDP growth slows, the government focuses on ways of raising investment in the economy. But evidence from the CSO suggests that the source of the problem may lie elsewhere.
Is There a Case for Fiscal Stringency in India Now?
11 December, 2013, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
The authors examine the evidence on central government’s receipts and expenditure thus far and consider the validity of the case for fiscal stringency at this point.
The Missing Global Recovery
26 November, 2013, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
Periodic predictions of a much-belated recovery from a five-year long recession may divert attention from the persisting crisis. But the evidence is too stark to ignore.
The Elusive Recovery
21 November, 2013, Prabhat Patnaik
While monetary policies have failed to resolve the current global crisis, resistance to fiscal intervention from finance capital prevents any meaningful solution for recovery.
Where have All the Women Workers Gone?
14 November, 2013, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
By using recent Indian employment data, the authors examine the evidence on women’s work participation in rural and urban areas and consider some possible explanations.
India’s Informal Economy
29 October, 2013, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
India's large informal sector's extreme backwardness makes the quality of growth poor. Existing vague definitions also do not help in understanding its potential.
Macroeconomic Vulnerability and the Rupee’s Decline
28 October, 2013, C.P. Chandrasekhar
The measures adopted by the government to stem the rupee depreciation rather than being a success may well lead India into a crisis.
Those Chinese fears
01 October, 2013, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
While speculation of a looming banking crisis in China is not without basis, the fact that its big banks are publicly owned and serve the goals set by the state is ignored.
'Loans First' – Explaining Money Creation by Banks
30 September, 2013, Arnab Kumar Chowdhury
In fractional reserve banking, the description of banking as "accepting deposits for lending" distorts the perspective in which economics of banking is perceived and analyzed.
How Should We Deal with the Current Account Deficit?
17 September, 2013, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
Although the Rupee has stabilised for the moment, the resolution of India's external crisis is far from sight as the basic source of the problem still remains unaddressed.
Microfinance and the Challenge of Financial Inclusion for Development
13 September, 2013, Jayati Ghosh
The author reviews the effectiveness of microfinance in developing countries by studying the experience of the state of Andhra Pradesh in India.
The Looming Banking Crisis
04 September, 2013, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
The crisis engulfing the Indian economy is expected to affect the corporates and the infrastructural projects burdened with large debt, impacting the Indian banking sector.
To Pay or Not to Pay: Vodafone tax imbroglio
30 August, 2013, Abhijit Mukhopadhyay
The Vodafone tax case set bad precedent, created panic in the government, induced irrational policy making, and showed the extent of blatant appeasement of foreign investment.
Do Wage Shares Have to Fall with Globalisation?
23 July, 2013, C.P. Chandrasekhar
That inequality has been on the rise during the period of globalisation is evident from the declining shares of labour income in GDP in many parts of the world.
The Employment Bottleneck
09 July, 2013, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
The results from the NSSO's uncharacteristic survey carried out in 2011-12 reveal that the retake on employment in a good agricultural year has also not brought all good news.
The Fall of the Rupee
05 July, 2013, Prabhat Patnaik
The fall of the Rupee is not due to isolated India-specific factors, but is a fallout of the general characteristic of the core-periphery relationship in capitalism.


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