World Economy

Pakistan: Who needs a crisis?
29 August, 2018, C.P. Chandrasekhar
As Pakistan’s new Prime Minister, Imran Khan faces the current balance of payments, its important to look at Pakistan’s debt history, especially in light of its association with China’s Belt and Road Initiative. With IMF’s support to Pakistan in the past, it is to be seen how a proxy stand-off between a retreating power and a rising one plays out.
Did Developing Countries Really Recover from the Global Crisis?
17 July, 2018, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
A decade after the Global Financial Crisis, developing countries still bear the scars in the form of lower growth and lower investment rates.
The Indiscreet Aggression of the Bourgeoisie
04 July, 2018, C.P. Chandrasekhar
The financial crisis and a subsequent period of recession affecting the majority population in economies points to the fact that neoliberal economic policy might have lost its legitimacy. On the contrast, a change in mood with Brexit and Trump’s victory might not be subsequent setbacks with a new aggression on part of the neoliberal elite. Today, across the world, big business is attempting to influence economic decision-making in ways that can save the neoliberal project from collapse.
George Soros on The Current Conjuncture
25 June, 2018, Prabhat Patnaik
Factors like the U.S. sucking out finance capital from the rest of the world; the appreciating dollar; the looming crisis for the third world; the refugee problem for Europe are together pushing world capitalism into a serious crisis as put by George Soros. A Marshall plan may save the system but the basic foundations of capitalism are against this proposal.
Has Donald Trump Already Changed US Trade?
19 June, 2018, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
Donald Trump is threatening to dismantle the current world trading system, but in his first year US trading patterns show strong continuity with the previous administration.
Trump Versus the Rest
18 June, 2018, Prabhat Patnaik
Donald Trump’s protectionist stance at the G-7 summit is an example of how disunited capitalist countries are on a possible solution to the capitalist crisis. Because of the position of the US economy, Trump can afford to hold on to his protectionist policies while enlarging the fiscal deficit. What is wrong about this strategy is the possibility of long term repercussions, not just for America but for the capitalist world as a whole.
Shadow cast by the rupee
07 June, 2018, C.P. Chandrasekhar
The rupee has sharply depreciated in the recent weeks giving reason for concern. The external events of rise in oil prices and rate of interest in advanced economies has led to a surge in the current account deficit and capital outflows respectively. The success of 'the liberalization reforms' lies in the huge capital inflows and thus, has enhanced the periodic bouts of the rupee, hinting to symptoms of a bubble economy.
The Gathering Storm Clouds
28 May, 2018, Praveen Jha & Amit Chakraborty
The Indian Economy has all along been critically dependent upon the inflow of speculative finance to sustain its balance of payment. It now faces threatening prospects of a spiral as international crude oil prices and U.S. interest rates, that kept its import bill restricted, are on the rise.
Once again, the oil price scare
22 May, 2018, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
As oil prices rise again, countries like India that had benefited from relatively low prices in recent years have to reconsider their growth and macroeconomic strategies.
The return of the oil threat
11 May, 2018, C.P. Chandrasekhar
As oil-producing countries, especially Saudi Arabia and Russia, stick to their reduced outputs and as Trump threatens to isolate Iran with sanctions once again, the spectre of high oil prices and the accompanying inflation seem very real.
The return of a housing bubble
08 May, 2018, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
While household balance sheets are not rid of the debt accumulated in the years preceding the 2008 crisis, there are signs that purchases financed with new debt are leading to a fresh bubble in property markets.
The Collapse in Developing Country Exports
25 April, 2018, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
The period since 2010 has seen a collapse in developing country exports, most of all in South-South trade. Developing countries need to factor this into their future strategies.
Trump's Trade War
24 April, 2018, C.P. Chandrasekhar
The trade sanctions on China and other protectionist measures announced by the Trump administration will not only not serve the cause of the U.S.’ trade deficit but could also spark off a trade war, resulting in an overall shrinkage of world trade.
The True Face of the Global Recovery
11 April, 2018, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
Optimistic assessments of the synchronised recovery across the world economy ignore the factors driving the weak upturn that make it fragile.
Doyen of 'Dependency Theory'
03 April, 2018, Sunanda Sen
Theotonio dos Santos (1936–2018), who passed away on 27th February in Rio de Janeiro, was a major proponent of dependecia or dependency theory, important for those interpreting the growing disparities between the advanced and the developing world. Time will bear testimony to his contributions, as a scholar, a theoretician, and an activist who spent his life in spelling out the injustices in globalization.
How Unequal are World Incomes?
27 March, 2018, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
Global inequality has reduced as income growth shifts from the Northern countries to emerging markets like the BRICS. But this shift is quite limited and has not benefited the bulk of people in the developing world.
Market Fever and its Aftermath
13 March, 2018, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
As fears of a market downturn cloud sentiment, the factors that led up to the bull run and their implications need to be studied and learnt from.
A Dangerous Period
16 February, 2018, Prabhat Patnaik
Contemporary Fascism around the world is emerging as neo-liberal capitalism’s “gift” to mankind in the period of its maturity, when it submerges the world economy in a crisis, and reaches a dead-end from which there is no obvious escape.
Rising Incomes, Falling Wages
31 January, 2018, Jayati Ghosh
Changing the unequal economic tendencies brought out in the World Inequality Report 2018 requires changing the politics—not just making governments more accountable to the people, but making people realise that they are being fooled.
How China is managing capital flows - and why
24 November, 2017, Jayati Ghosh
China is seeking a more influential role in the global economy, and it hopes to achieve this through greater use of its currency by others.
Unbalanced global growth
08 November, 2017, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
The distribution of the weak global economic recovery since the Great Recession provides little reason for optimism about the future.
Neo-Liberal Capitalism and its Crisis
24 October, 2017, Prabhat Patnaik
Neo-liberal capitalism is marked by the hegemony of international finance capital which has many consequences, among which is the alarming upsurge of fascism, differing markedly from the fascism of the 1930s.
Progressive mobilization in Europe
20 July, 2017, Jayati Ghosh
The G20 summit in Hamburg was an occasion for public affirmations of the continued power of progressive ideas and calls for action around issues that really matter, in the form of an alternative summit, performance art demonstrations, and marches.
The Hamburg Fiasco
19 July, 2017, C.P. Chandrasekhar
There is no sign of any consensus coming out of the G20 on the need for a mix of globally coordinated policies and a fiscal push to pull the world economy out of recession. What we have once again is a set of statements that says everything and therefore nothing.
Three Deaths
19 July, 2017, Prabhat Patnaik
Prabhat Patnaik mourns the deaths of three of his close friends, all brilliant people: Arup Mullick, Basudev Chatterji, and Nirupam Sen, whose outstanding character and intellectual genius will be greatly missed.
Justice in the Age of Finance
07 July, 2017, C.P. Chandrasekhar
The very limited Barclays prosecution comes in the wake of a half-hearted investigation effort, which has thus far completely let off all those who took the world economy to the verge of a crisis akin to the Great Depression. It is not clear if anything will finally come out of even this case, which is aimed at merely teaching a lesson to those who hurt a bunch of financial investors by violating insider rules.
The Rights of the Child and the G20 Summit
03 July, 2017, Sir Richard Jolly & Gabriele Kohler
Fresh research from UNICEF shows that the number of children in poverty, in rich countries has increased as a result of austerity policies. An average of one in five children in 41 high income countries lives in poverty. Children and their rights do not even seem to feature in the G20 manifesto, even as it stresses the ending of austerity policies and encouraging public budgets that promote development and poverty eradication.
One Belt, One Road, One grand design?
10 June, 2017, Jayati Ghosh
As Trump adopts protectionist measures, President Xi Jingpings project One Belt One Road is an overwhelmingly ambitious plan to restore faith in globalization. Aiming to perfectly connect 60 countries to China, it is expected to face huge political and financial difficulties. Although it points to a new kind of Chinese imperialism, such a world of competitive superpowers might open new opportunities for the developing nations.
Where will Global Demand come from?
23 May, 2017, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
As the US reduces its role as engine of global demand, there are no signs that other economies will be able to pick up the slack. The mercantilist approach exemplified by Germany is creating net global slowdown.
World Capitalist Crisis getting Accentuated
22 May, 2017, Prabhat Patnaik
After a brief illusion of recovery in the U.S., the world economic crisis is getting accentuated. Trump administration would rather increase its fiscal deficit, if at all it does, through tax cuts than state expenditure under the hegemony of finance capital. This might further suppress consumption expenditure, already constricted by falling global wages. Such policies, paired with hostile protectionism, would make correcting over-production and hence overcoming world crisis, almost impossible.
Public Bank Privatisation in a Post-truth World
17 May, 2017, C.P. Chandrasekhar
Narendra Modi government appears to have decided to privatise public sector banks (PSBs). Preparations are underway with arguments being marshalled that "there is no alternative" to privatisation.
Age of Uncertainty
23 December, 2016, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
With the US Federal Reserve deciding to exit the era of low interest rates even when growth in the rest of the world economy falters or remains sluggish, economic uncertainty intensifies.
Can Developing Asia Hold its Ground?
06 December, 2016, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
Capital flight from Asia points to investor concerns about both political processes in the big Asian developing economies and medium-term economic prospects.
Colombia: The search for elusive peace
09 November, 2016, Jayati Ghosh
Despite the peace agreement was rejected by the referendum, the peace process in Colombia is not over and there is hope that the agreement can be tweaked and then implemented.
How Successful is China's Economic Rebalancing?
08 November, 2016, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
China's rapid economic growth has slowed recently but does this reflect the desired rebalancing of the economy away from investment to consumption and wage-led growth?
The Growing Resistance against Globalization
21 October, 2016, Prabhat Patnaik
All across the world the tide is beginning to turn against globalization through the growing resistance of the working people and remarkably, nowhere it is being led by the Left.
Globalization and the Worlds Working People
11 July, 2016, Prabhat Patnaik
Contrary to the impression that Globalization would benefit all, it has actually worsened the conditions of the broad mass of the working people in both parts of the world.
The Global "New Normal" Is Not New- But it is still a real concern
21 June, 2016, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
Global growth rates of the last five years are similar to those in the past, but now they are accompanied by unprecedented monetary expansion that seems to have little impact.
And Now, Price Deflation in India and China?
31 May, 2016, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
While it was presumed the developing world, especially the more prominent emerging markets, were less prone to price deflation, data from China and India show trends of declining producer prices.
Societal Involution in the North
16 May, 2016, Jayati Ghosh
Recent social and political trends in the US and in parts of Europe point to the regressive tendencies that seek to recreate a past that seems less complicated, but manages to intensify unhappiness.
No Clue to the Future
27 April, 2016, C.P. Chandrasekhar
The failure of the G20 countries to agree to an action plan not just to ensure recovery but prevent a second slump, may lead to countries adopting beggar-thy-neighbour policies.
How much has Global Economic Power Really Shifted?
31 March, 2016, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
This article analyses the significance of shift in global economic power from the North to the South and what exactly it means for the countries in developing Asia like India.
Banks and the New Asian Tigers
30 March, 2016, C.P. Chandrasekhar
Substantial accumulation of bad debt in the domestic banking systems of India and China seems to be proving too heavy a burden to bear when the good times are disappearing.
The IMF in Pakistan
18 February, 2016, C.P. Chandrasekhar
While presenting a positive picture of the Pakistan economy the IMF conceals the fact that Pakistan's role as an on-and-off strategic partner of the US has undermined its ability to find an independently funded growth strategy.
A Different Oil Shock
04 February, 2016, C.P. Chandrasekhar
Given the magnitude of the oil price fall, the world economy seems set for a deflationary crisis rather than expansionary deflation.
Capital Bleeds from Emerging Asia
02 February, 2016, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
Capital flight, in 2015, from the emerging markets, especially those in Asia, was much worse than has been previously estimated. This augurs ill for the coming year.
The Continuing Debt Problem in Asia
08 December, 2015, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
Private household debt is going to be a major concern for many Asian economies as excessive household debt and falling realty prices combine to create a potentially potent mix.
The Shrinking of Global Imbalances
10 November, 2015, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
Global imbalances in the current account do appear to have come down in the aggregate but the pattern and the outcomes are different from what was anticipated.
Debt and Asia's Success
03 November, 2015, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
An improved dataset from the Bank of International Settlements reveals that the post crisis 'success' of Asia in terms of growth was built on a pile of debt.
Understanding "Secular Stagnation"
15 October, 2015, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
This article discusses the issue of the "new normal" of low or stagnating output growth that the analysts and reports of international organisations are talking about.
No Case for Complacence
05 October, 2015, C.P. Chandrasekhar
The yuan depreciation can trigger a chain of events that would convert the creeping world recession into another full-fledged crisis and India cannot be immune from contagion.
Europe's Refugee "Crisis"
30 September, 2015, Jayati Ghosh
Asylum seekers do not have an easy time anywhere, but the richer countries have without question been meaner, more oppressive and more restrictive in their dealings with them.
The Retreat of the Emerging Markets
16 September, 2015, Jayati Ghosh
The process of export-led growth strategy that led to declining wage share and increasing inequalities and environmental problems has ultimately proved to be unsustainable.
The Devaluation of the Yuan
08 September, 2015, Prabhat Patnaik
With the depreciation in the Chinese yuan, the world economy in all probability is going to face a deflation and a "debt-deflation" syndrome.
"De-Linking" and Domestic Reaction
07 September, 2015, Prabhat Patnaik
The author here highlights the fact that it is not de-linking from globalization but globalization itself that conduces to a strengthening of reactionary forces.
Emerging Markets in Retreat
25 August, 2015, Jayati Ghosh
From Brazil to Thailand, experiences of the emerging markets confirm that relying only on net export growth or debt-driven bubbles for rapid growth cannot work for very long.
China's RenMinBi Strategy
18 August, 2015, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
The sudden depreciation of Chinese currency, that has impacted global markets, may be an attempt to revive export growth and provide stimulus to growth to the flagging economy.
China's Troubled Stock Markets
04 August, 2015, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
The boom bust cycles in China's stock markets question the government's view that there is much to be gained from deregulating them.
China's Stock Market Collapse
22 July, 2015, Jayati Ghosh
The negative impacts of China's stock market collapse, falling exports and the explosion of debt are not just felt within the economy but across the globe.
Looking Back at Debt Relief for the Germans
21 July, 2015, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
In the current Eurozone attitudes towards Greece, it is often forgotten that Germany was the major beneficiary of debt write-offs in the 20th century when Greece was its creditor.
A Greek Tragedy that could have been Avoided
08 July, 2015, Jayati Ghosh
The EU's insistence on grinding austerity measures and stubborn resistance to even consider the option of debt restructuring forced the Greek people into greater hardship.
The Spectre of the Thirties
07 July, 2015, Prabhat Patnaik
The world economy today is reminiscent of the 1930s where competitive easing of monetary policy is not boosting aggregate demand and fiscal policy is barred by finance capital.
Calling a Halt to the Pseudo "Trade Deals"
24 June, 2015, Jayati Ghosh
The TPP or the TTIP deal is not really about trade; they both are about strengthening the rules that favour capital over not just workers but over citizens in general.
Economic Forecasts and Reality: Should we believe the World Bank?
23 June, 2015, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
The World Banks latest projections for GDP growth are pessimistic, especially for developing countries. But given its poor track record, how far they are reliable is doubtful.
When Will the Next Financial Crisis Start?
15 June, 2015, Sabri Oncu
The global financial crisis that started in 2007 has never ended and now there are warnings of a looming market liquidity crisis, but when this will hit remains to be seen.
The Declining World Foreign Exchange Reserves
12 June, 2015, Prabhat Patnaik
The author in this article explains the reason behind the sudden decline in the world foreign exchange reserves.
Looking to the US
09 June, 2015, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
In a curious turn of events, the US economy rather than the Asian emerging markets is now expected to lead a global recovery. But the reason and implications are not so clear.
The Bursting of China's Housing Bubble
28 April, 2015, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
The party is over in China's real estate markets, but the policy makers are trying to revive it through financial deregulation and monetary easing that is unlikely to work.
China and India in the World Economy
31 March, 2015, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
As there is excitement about the possibility of India overtaking China in terms of GDP growth, it is useful to remind ourselves of the relative positions of the two economies.
Ever Expanding Debt Bubbles in China and India
03 March, 2015, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
Even though China appears to have a much higher levels of debt- GDP ratio, India's debt situation with much lower levels of corporate debt may prove to be more problematic.
Oil: The big 100 per cent story
02 February, 2015, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
In a puzzling development, some financial markets registered a decline in the wake of the recent dramatic fall in oil prices. So, is the oil price fall not all good news?
Asian Banks in Trouble
02 January, 2015, C.P. Chandrasekhar
Emerging market economies in Asia are confronted with signs of bank fragility owing to overexposure to the private sector, whose mounting external debt compounds the problem.
Debt in Asian vulnerability
25 November, 2014, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
Amidst stock market euphoria, the growing international debt exposure of certain Asian countries, particularly Hong Kong, China and India, is a matter of major concern.
The Gathering Clouds of Recession
24 November, 2014, Prabhat Patnaik
The world capitalist economy's slide into a new downturn is likely to be a harbinger of major economic and political changes within the structure of world capitalism.
The Difficult Art of Economic Diversification
11 November, 2014, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
Indonesia provides a stark example of an economy that diversified its pattern of trade and domestic production, only to relapse back into a dependence on primary exports.
The Cotton Conundrum
24 October, 2014, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
Chinas decision to liquidate its large raw cotton stocks accumulated as part of a policy of supporting domestic production is hurting the worlds cotton exporters.
Oil: Hope of respite?
22 August, 2014, C.P. Chandrasekhar
Despite a downward trend in global oil prices, in the long run India may have to find alternative routes to finance the oil import bill as the trend may be short-lived.
BRICS Gains Currency in Brazil
25 July, 2014, Biswajit Dhar
BRICS is poised to make a mark in the global economic governance, if the NDB and the CRA turn into credible financial institutions as counterparts of the existing structure.
The Rise and Fall of the Global South
21 July, 2014, Prabhat Patnaik
The south that was supposedly rising is now witnessing a fall and this can be prevented only if the domestic market is expanded through egalitarian measures of redistribution.
India as a Manufacturing Hub
08 July, 2014, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
The strategy of the new government to revive Indias manufacturing sector by exploiting global value chains is well known, but how much success this will bring is doubtful.
Chinese Dreams
11 June, 2014, C.P. Chandrasekhar
The pursuit of the Chinese dream may become a nightmare for the majority as it involves reduction of expenditures on food subsidies and other welfare measures.
No Help from Abroad
04 June, 2014, C.P. Chandrasekhar
The author here shows that the OECD's optimistic growth projections are questionable and the global environment confronting the new government of India is not favourable.
The Threat from Big Pharma
15 May, 2014, C.P. Chandrasekhar
The recent global trend of M&A in the pharmaceutical industry poses a danger for prices of life savings drugs, especially in India, with 100% FDI approval from the government.
How Vulnerable are Emerging Economies?
06 March, 2014, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
Developing countries face a complex set of challenges in the changing global scenario that does not seem to be factored into economic policies in most countries.
Cheap Labour and Competitiveness
07 February, 2014, C.P. Chandrasekhar
The author analyses the merits of the argument of China having reached the Lewis turning point, which is predicted to make way for new suppliers in the world market.
Search for Recovery
07 February, 2014, C.P. Chandrasekhar
Although every significant country of the world is still in the midst of growth deceleration, forecasters confidently hold out hopes of a recovery.
The Geography of Global Manufacturing
27 January, 2014, C.P. Chandrasekhar
The US's cries on the looming threat from China seem to be just propaganda to pre-empt any challenge to existing imperial power.
The Employment Challenge
22 January, 2014, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
Although every significant country of the world is still in the midst of growth deceleration, forecasters confidently hold out hopes of a recovery.
Shutting Out the Progressive Agenda
17 October, 2013, C.P. Chandrasekhar
The US shut down reflects the extent to which finance capital controlled Right is ready to go to prevent any progressive social sector agenda even in the post crisis scenario.
Those Chinese fears
01 October, 2013, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
While speculation of a looming banking crisis in China is not without basis, the fact that its big banks are publicly owned and serve the goals set by the state is ignored.
How Should We Deal with the Current Account Deficit?
17 September, 2013, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
Although the Rupee has stabilised for the moment, the resolution of India's external crisis is far from sight as the basic source of the problem still remains unaddressed.
Perils of Borrowed Prosperity
22 August, 2013, Prasenjit Bose
There are structural aspects underlying Indias external deficit and financing this by attracting more capital inflows will imply growing external indebtedness for the economy.
The Sensex and the Economy
08 April, 2013, C.P. Chandrasekhar
The central bank's cheap credit and easy money policies have helped the Indian stock market to remain reasonably positioned even when the economy sinks.
The Dangers of Fiscal Austerity
04 March, 2013, Jayati Ghosh
Despite fiscal austerity measures proving to be counterproductive in dealing with economic contractions worldwide, the Indian government is poised to implement similar policies.
How Not to Urbanise
06 February, 2013, Jayati Ghosh
Although recent urbanisation in China is associated with several positive features, it has also generated problems that are making this process unsustainable.
Is China Changing?
01 February, 2013, C.P. Chandrasekhar
As evidence suggests, the Chinese economy is experiencing a reversal of the trajectory of high growth driven by excess investment; there is a shift towards consumption now.
India's Growth Story: A comparative view
11 December, 2012, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
Indian growth episode was not based on the sorts of stimuli and methods of financing that have characterised the growth of some other more successful Asian economies.
India, China and the World
19 October, 2012, Prabhat Patnaik
Those who defend neo-liberal policies in India by citing Chinas export and growth successes, as if India can simply replicate Chinas experience, are completely wrong.
Food World
17 October, 2012, Jayati Ghosh
The globalised fast-food culture encourages a wasteful and unhealthy pattern of food consumption that is detrimental to health of people in developing and developed countries.


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