World Economy

Progressive mobilization in Europe
20 July, 2017, Jayati Ghosh
The G20 summit in Hamburg was an occasion for public affirmations of the continued power of progressive ideas and calls for action around issues that really matter, in the form of an alternative summit, performance art demonstrations, and marches.
The Hamburg Fiasco
19 July, 2017, C.P. Chandrasekhar
There is no sign of any consensus coming out of the G20 on the need for a mix of globally coordinated policies and a fiscal push to pull the world economy out of recession. What we have once again is a set of statements that says everything and therefore nothing.
Three Deaths
19 July, 2017, Prabhat Patnaik
Prabhat Patnaik mourns the deaths of three of his close friends, all brilliant people: Arup Mullick, Basudev Chatterji, and Nirupam Sen, whose outstanding character and intellectual genius will be greatly missed.
Justice in the Age of Finance
07 July, 2017, C.P. Chandrasekhar
The very limited Barclays prosecution comes in the wake of a half-hearted investigation effort, which has thus far completely let off all those who took the world economy to the verge of a crisis akin to the Great Depression. It is not clear if anything will finally come out of even this case, which is aimed at merely teaching a lesson to those who hurt a bunch of financial investors by violating insider rules.
The Rights of the Child and the G20 Summit
03 July, 2017, Sir Richard Jolly & Gabriele Kohler
Fresh research from UNICEF shows that the number of children in poverty, in rich countries has increased as a result of austerity policies. An average of one in five children in 41 high income countries lives in poverty. Children and their rights do not even seem to feature in the G20 manifesto, even as it stresses the ending of austerity policies and encouraging public budgets that promote development and poverty eradication.
One Belt, One Road, One grand design?
10 June, 2017, Jayati Ghosh
As Trump adopts protectionist measures, President Xi Jingpings’ project “One Belt One Road” is an overwhelmingly ambitious plan to restore faith in globalization. Aiming to perfectly connect 60 countries to China, it is expected to face huge political and financial difficulties. Although it points to a new kind of Chinese imperialism, such a world of competitive superpowers might open new opportunities for the developing nations.
Where will Global Demand come from?
23 May, 2017, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
As the US reduces its role as engine of global demand, there are no signs that other economies will be able to pick up the slack. The mercantilist approach exemplified by Germany is creating net global slowdown.
World Capitalist Crisis getting Accentuated
22 May, 2017, Prabhat Patnaik
After a brief illusion of recovery in the U.S., the world economic crisis is getting accentuated. Trump administration would rather increase its fiscal deficit, if at all it does, through tax cuts than state expenditure under the hegemony of finance capital. This might further suppress consumption expenditure, already constricted by falling global wages. Such policies, paired with hostile protectionism, would make correcting over-production and hence overcoming world crisis, almost impossible.
Public Bank Privatisation in a Post-truth World
17 May, 2017, C.P. Chandrasekhar
Narendra Modi government appears to have decided to privatise public sector banks (PSBs). Preparations are underway with arguments being marshalled that "there is no alternative" to privatisation.
Age of Uncertainty
23 December, 2016, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
With the US Federal Reserve deciding to exit the era of low interest rates even when growth in the rest of the world economy falters or remains sluggish, economic uncertainty intensifies.
Can Developing Asia Hold its Ground?
06 December, 2016, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
Capital flight from Asia points to investor concerns about both political processes in the big Asian developing economies and medium-term economic prospects.
Colombia: The search for elusive peace
09 November, 2016, Jayati Ghosh
Despite the peace agreement was rejected by the referendum, the peace process in Colombia is not over and there is hope that the agreement can be tweaked and then implemented.
How Successful is China's Economic Rebalancing?
08 November, 2016, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
China's rapid economic growth has slowed recently – but does this reflect the desired rebalancing of the economy away from investment to consumption and wage-led growth?
The Growing Resistance against Globalization
21 October, 2016, Prabhat Patnaik
All across the world the tide is beginning to turn against globalization through the growing resistance of the working people and remarkably, nowhere it is being led by the Left.
Globalization and the World’s Working People
11 July, 2016, Prabhat Patnaik
Contrary to the impression that Globalization would benefit all, it has actually worsened the conditions of the broad mass of the working people in both parts of the world.
The Global "New Normal" Is Not New- But it is still a real concern
21 June, 2016, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
Global growth rates of the last five years are similar to those in the past, but now they are accompanied by unprecedented monetary expansion that seems to have little impact.
And Now, Price Deflation in India and China?
31 May, 2016, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
While it was presumed the developing world, especially the more prominent emerging markets, were less prone to price deflation, data from China and India show trends of declining producer prices.
Societal Involution in the North
16 May, 2016, Jayati Ghosh
Recent social and political trends in the US and in parts of Europe point to the regressive tendencies that seek to recreate a past that seems less complicated, but manages to intensify unhappiness.
No Clue to the Future
27 April, 2016, C.P. Chandrasekhar
The failure of the G20 countries to agree to an action plan not just to ensure recovery but prevent a second slump, may lead to countries adopting beggar-thy-neighbour policies.
How much has Global Economic Power Really Shifted?
31 March, 2016, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
This article analyses the significance of shift in global economic power from the North to the South and what exactly it means for the countries in developing Asia like India.
Banks and the New Asian Tigers
30 March, 2016, C.P. Chandrasekhar
Substantial accumulation of bad debt in the domestic banking systems of India and China seems to be proving too heavy a burden to bear when the good times are disappearing.
The IMF in Pakistan
18 February, 2016, C.P. Chandrasekhar
While presenting a positive picture of the Pakistan economy the IMF conceals the fact that Pakistan's role as an on-and-off strategic partner of the US has undermined its ability to find an independently funded growth strategy.
A Different Oil Shock
04 February, 2016, C.P. Chandrasekhar
Given the magnitude of the oil price fall, the world economy seems set for a deflationary crisis rather than expansionary deflation.
Capital Bleeds from Emerging Asia
02 February, 2016, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
Capital flight, in 2015, from the emerging markets, especially those in Asia, was much worse than has been previously estimated. This augurs ill for the coming year.
The Continuing Debt Problem in Asia
08 December, 2015, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
Private household debt is going to be a major concern for many Asian economies as excessive household debt and falling realty prices combine to create a potentially potent mix.
The Shrinking of Global Imbalances
10 November, 2015, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
Global imbalances in the current account do appear to have come down in the aggregate but the pattern and the outcomes are different from what was anticipated.
Debt and Asia's Success
03 November, 2015, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
An improved dataset from the Bank of International Settlements reveals that the post crisis 'success' of Asia in terms of growth was built on a pile of debt.
Understanding "Secular Stagnation"
15 October, 2015, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
This article discusses the issue of the "new normal" of low or stagnating output growth that the analysts and reports of international organisations are talking about.
No Case for Complacence
05 October, 2015, C.P. Chandrasekhar
The yuan depreciation can trigger a chain of events that would convert the creeping world recession into another full-fledged crisis and India cannot be immune from contagion.
Europe's Refugee "Crisis"
30 September, 2015, Jayati Ghosh
Asylum seekers do not have an easy time anywhere, but the richer countries have without question been meaner, more oppressive and more restrictive in their dealings with them.
The Retreat of the Emerging Markets
16 September, 2015, Jayati Ghosh
The process of export-led growth strategy that led to declining wage share and increasing inequalities and environmental problems has ultimately proved to be unsustainable.
The Devaluation of the Yuan
08 September, 2015, Prabhat Patnaik
With the depreciation in the Chinese yuan, the world economy in all probability is going to face a deflation and a "debt-deflation" syndrome.
"De-Linking" and Domestic Reaction
07 September, 2015, Prabhat Patnaik
The author here highlights the fact that it is not de-linking from globalization but globalization itself that conduces to a strengthening of reactionary forces.
Emerging Markets in Retreat
25 August, 2015, Jayati Ghosh
From Brazil to Thailand, experiences of the emerging markets confirm that relying only on net export growth or debt-driven bubbles for rapid growth cannot work for very long.
China's RenMinBi Strategy
18 August, 2015, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
The sudden depreciation of Chinese currency, that has impacted global markets, may be an attempt to revive export growth and provide stimulus to growth to the flagging economy.
China's Troubled Stock Markets
04 August, 2015, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
The boom bust cycles in China's stock markets question the government's view that there is much to be gained from deregulating them.
China's Stock Market Collapse
22 July, 2015, Jayati Ghosh
The negative impacts of China's stock market collapse, falling exports and the explosion of debt are not just felt within the economy but across the globe.
Looking Back at Debt Relief for the Germans
21 July, 2015, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
In the current Eurozone attitudes towards Greece, it is often forgotten that Germany was the major beneficiary of debt write-offs in the 20th century when Greece was its creditor.
A Greek Tragedy that could have been Avoided
08 July, 2015, Jayati Ghosh
The EU's insistence on grinding austerity measures and stubborn resistance to even consider the option of debt restructuring forced the Greek people into greater hardship.
The Spectre of the Thirties
07 July, 2015, Prabhat Patnaik
The world economy today is reminiscent of the 1930s where competitive easing of monetary policy is not boosting aggregate demand and fiscal policy is barred by finance capital.
Calling a Halt to the Pseudo "Trade Deals"
24 June, 2015, Jayati Ghosh
The TPP or the TTIP deal is not really about trade; they both are about strengthening the rules that favour capital over not just workers but over citizens in general.
Economic Forecasts and Reality: Should we believe the World Bank?
23 June, 2015, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
The World Bank’s latest projections for GDP growth are pessimistic, especially for developing countries. But given its poor track record, how far they are reliable is doubtful.
When Will the Next Financial Crisis Start?
15 June, 2015, Sabri Oncu
The global financial crisis that started in 2007 has never ended and now there are warnings of a looming market liquidity crisis, but when this will hit remains to be seen.
The Declining World Foreign Exchange Reserves
12 June, 2015, Prabhat Patnaik
The author in this article explains the reason behind the sudden decline in the world foreign exchange reserves.
Looking to the US
09 June, 2015, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
In a curious turn of events, the US economy rather than the Asian emerging markets is now expected to lead a global recovery. But the reason and implications are not so clear.
The Bursting of China's Housing Bubble
28 April, 2015, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
The party is over in China's real estate markets, but the policy makers are trying to revive it through financial deregulation and monetary easing that is unlikely to work.
China and India in the World Economy
31 March, 2015, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
As there is excitement about the possibility of India overtaking China in terms of GDP growth, it is useful to remind ourselves of the relative positions of the two economies.
Ever Expanding Debt Bubbles in China and India
03 March, 2015, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
Even though China appears to have a much higher levels of debt- GDP ratio, India's debt situation with much lower levels of corporate debt may prove to be more problematic.
Oil: The big 100 per cent story
02 February, 2015, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
In a puzzling development, some financial markets registered a decline in the wake of the recent dramatic fall in oil prices. So, is the oil price fall not all good news?
Asian Banks in Trouble
02 January, 2015, C.P. Chandrasekhar
Emerging market economies in Asia are confronted with signs of bank fragility owing to overexposure to the private sector, whose mounting external debt compounds the problem.
Debt in Asian vulnerability
25 November, 2014, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
Amidst stock market euphoria, the growing international debt exposure of certain Asian countries, particularly Hong Kong, China and India, is a matter of major concern.
The Gathering Clouds of Recession
24 November, 2014, Prabhat Patnaik
The world capitalist economy's slide into a new downturn is likely to be a harbinger of major economic and political changes within the structure of world capitalism.
The Difficult Art of Economic Diversification
11 November, 2014, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
Indonesia provides a stark example of an economy that diversified its pattern of trade and domestic production, only to relapse back into a dependence on primary exports.
The Cotton Conundrum
24 October, 2014, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
China’s decision to liquidate its large raw cotton stocks accumulated as part of a policy of supporting domestic production is hurting the world’s cotton exporters.
Oil: Hope of respite?
22 August, 2014, C.P. Chandrasekhar
Despite a downward trend in global oil prices, in the long run India may have to find alternative routes to finance the oil import bill as the trend may be short-lived.
BRICS Gains Currency in Brazil
25 July, 2014, Biswajit Dhar
BRICS is poised to make a mark in the global economic governance, if the NDB and the CRA turn into credible financial institutions – as counterparts of the existing structure.
The Rise and Fall of the Global South
21 July, 2014, Prabhat Patnaik
The south that was supposedly rising is now witnessing a fall and this can be prevented only if the domestic market is expanded through egalitarian measures of redistribution.
India as a Manufacturing Hub
08 July, 2014, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
The strategy of the new government to revive India’s manufacturing sector by exploiting global value chains is well known, but how much success this will bring is doubtful.
Chinese Dreams
11 June, 2014, C.P. Chandrasekhar
The pursuit of the Chinese dream may become a nightmare for the majority as it involves reduction of expenditures on food subsidies and other welfare measures.
No Help from Abroad
04 June, 2014, C.P. Chandrasekhar
The author here shows that the OECD's optimistic growth projections are questionable and the global environment confronting the new government of India is not favourable.
The Threat from Big Pharma
15 May, 2014, C.P. Chandrasekhar
The recent global trend of M&A in the pharmaceutical industry poses a danger for prices of life savings drugs, especially in India, with 100% FDI approval from the government.
How Vulnerable are Emerging Economies?
06 March, 2014, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
Developing countries face a complex set of challenges in the changing global scenario that does not seem to be factored into economic policies in most countries.
Cheap Labour and Competitiveness
07 February, 2014, C.P. Chandrasekhar
The author analyses the merits of the argument of China having reached the Lewis turning point, which is predicted to make way for new suppliers in the world market.
Search for Recovery
07 February, 2014, C.P. Chandrasekhar
Although every significant country of the world is still in the midst of growth deceleration, forecasters confidently hold out hopes of a recovery.
The Geography of Global Manufacturing
27 January, 2014, C.P. Chandrasekhar
The US's cries on the looming threat from China seem to be just propaganda to pre-empt any challenge to existing imperial power.
The Employment Challenge
22 January, 2014, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
Although every significant country of the world is still in the midst of growth deceleration, forecasters confidently hold out hopes of a recovery.
Shutting Out the Progressive Agenda
17 October, 2013, C.P. Chandrasekhar
The US shut down reflects the extent to which finance capital controlled Right is ready to go to prevent any progressive social sector agenda even in the post crisis scenario.
Those Chinese fears
01 October, 2013, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
While speculation of a looming banking crisis in China is not without basis, the fact that its big banks are publicly owned and serve the goals set by the state is ignored.
How Should We Deal with the Current Account Deficit?
17 September, 2013, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
Although the Rupee has stabilised for the moment, the resolution of India's external crisis is far from sight as the basic source of the problem still remains unaddressed.
Perils of Borrowed Prosperity
22 August, 2013, Prasenjit Bose
There are structural aspects underlying India’s external deficit and financing this by attracting more capital inflows will imply growing external indebtedness for the economy.
The Sensex and the Economy
08 April, 2013, C.P. Chandrasekhar
The central bank's cheap credit and easy money policies have helped the Indian stock market to remain reasonably positioned even when the economy sinks.
The Dangers of Fiscal Austerity
04 March, 2013, Jayati Ghosh
Despite fiscal austerity measures proving to be counterproductive in dealing with economic contractions worldwide, the Indian government is poised to implement similar policies.
How Not to Urbanise
06 February, 2013, Jayati Ghosh
Although recent urbanisation in China is associated with several positive features, it has also generated problems that are making this process unsustainable.
Is China Changing?
01 February, 2013, C.P. Chandrasekhar
As evidence suggests, the Chinese economy is experiencing a reversal of the trajectory of high growth driven by excess investment; there is a shift towards consumption now.
India's Growth Story: A comparative view
11 December, 2012, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
Indian growth episode was not based on the sorts of stimuli and methods of financing that have characterised the growth of some other more successful Asian economies.
India, China and the World
19 October, 2012, Prabhat Patnaik
Those who defend neo-liberal policies in India by citing China’s export and growth successes, as if India can simply replicate China’s experience, are completely wrong.
Food World
17 October, 2012, Jayati Ghosh
The globalised fast-food culture encourages a wasteful and unhealthy pattern of food consumption that is detrimental to health of people in developing and developed countries.
The Insensitive Sensex
15 October, 2012, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
While growth slows down in India, the only index faring well is the Sensex. The short term speculators armed with central bank’s cheap credit and easy money policies have helped it remain high though volatile.
How Wage-led Growth has Powered Argentina's Economic Recovery
31 August, 2012, Jayati Ghosh
The manner in which Argentina has been able to generate more genuinely inclusive growth, through the promotion of productive and fairly remunerated employment and a different approach to social protection, sets a bright example of alternative strategy. This could be a learning lesson for all other countries trying to come out of the current recessionary trends.
Ill Winds from Europe
08 August, 2012, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
The crisis intensifies in Europe and threatens to trigger a second global downturn in five years. This time, Asian countries, which weathered the last crisis well, seem less resilient. In fact, the evidence points to many routes to the spread of contagion to Asia.
ILO Leadership Election Must Not be Another Charade
21 May, 2012, Jayati Ghosh
The ILO is uniquely positioned among the multilateral organisations to play an extremely significant role in forging a global consensus around viable alternative economic trajectories. The election of a developing country candidate as its new Director-General would have important consequences that go beyond symbolism.
Time to End the Madness
16 May, 2012, C.P. Chandrasekhar
Irrational insistence on fiscal conservatism has led to widespread growth slowdown not only in the European countries, but also in emerging economies like China and India. The political backlash in major eurozone economies rekindles hope that governments embracing growth stunting fiscal tightening would soon switch back to sound economic policy-making.
Using the Potential of BRICS Financial Co-operation
09 April, 2012, Jayati Ghosh
The emergence of BRICS as a global economic entity offers a scope for democratising the entire process of South-South Co-operation that till date has been mainly corporate led. The commonalities of the challenges faced by the individual members of BRICS can act as a platform for developing a more progressive developmental trajectory for the member countries, and all emerging economies at large.
Post-Crisis Reform: A lost opportunity?
03 April, 2012, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
In its recently released annual report, the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas makes a case for breaking up banks considered too big to fail. But the failure to do that is only one possible way in which the opportunity provided by the crisis to reform and regulate finance has been lost.
The Chinese Way
24 February, 2012, C.P. Chandrasekhar
Although the use of the banking system as a development instrumentality in China has been useful, there are a host of new problems that has cropped up. This would possibly encourage the government to retrace its steps and strike a new path.
Can Asia Decouple?
22 February, 2012, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
As the global economic situation worsens, there are renewed concerns about the fate of developing countries. The authors consider recent trends in global GDP growth, investment and trade, and argue that the expectations of Asia being able to blithely withstand the latest round of economic crisis are not just over-optimistic but probably wrong.
We Need a New World Order at the World Bank
18 February, 2012, Jayati Ghosh
For long, the IMF and the World Bank have been zealously controlled by the USA and the European Countries on flimsy grounds. It is high time such practices are changed taking into account the new world realities.
The Role China Plays
25 January, 2012, C.P. Chandrasekhar
China, which is being touted as the biggest challenger to US economic supremacy, is witnessing slowdown in its growth rates. However, such a slowdown could prove to be bad news for the US economy as well, because China also happens to be the biggest market for all US MNCs too.
Year of Centenaries
12 January, 2012, Jayati Ghosh
100 years ago when Gustav Mahler composed his 9th Symphony, it reflected the troubling times he lived in. It was music for uncertain times, even though it contains within it certainties of different kinds. 100 years later, there is almost a sense of déjà vu with Europe, and indeed the whole world, now faced with another period of political and economic volatility.
Prospects for the World Economy in 2012
27 December, 2011, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
: 2011 revealed that the much vaunted economic recovery after the Great Recession was not inherently sustainable, as the recent problems of global capitalism, including those associated with excessive debt build-up, were reflected in new areas and caused economic slowdown across the world. Against the backdrop of economic trends in 2011, this article assesses the prospects for the world economy in 2012.
European Banks and Asia
17 November, 2011, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
European banks are being forced to take a haircut to deal with the region's crisis. Given their greater role in total international funding and the significant exposure of Asian financial systems to global capital, this raises concerns about the likely impact that the European banking crisis would have on Asia.
Employment Generation as an Economic Strategy for Uncertain Times
14 November, 2011, Jayati Ghosh
This is the acceptance speech made by the author at the award function of the ILO Decent Work Research Prize, 2010. Discussing the growing pressures in the current global scenario, she argues for a shift in macroeconomic strategy towards domestic wage- and employment-led growth as a means to sustainable growth, as well as an end in itself.


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