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The Dollar Drain
19 December, 2017, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
A recent spike in the volume of foreign exchange outflows under the Liberalised Remittance Scheme suggests that India is vulnerable to large scale capital flight, if economic uncertainty increases.
Do Purchasing Power Parity Exchange Rates Mislead on Incomes? The case of China
05 December, 2017, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
The use of exchange rates based on Purchasing Power Parities (PPPs) to compare incomes across countries and over time is now standard practice. But this may lead to excessively inflated incomes for poorer countries and not capture the real changes over time.
Where will Global Demand come from?
23 May, 2017, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
As the US reduces its role as engine of global demand, there are no signs that other economies will be able to pick up the slack. The mercantilist approach exemplified by Germany is creating net global slowdown.
When Commodity Prices Fall
26 April, 2016, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
The decline in primary commodity prices over the past four years particularly last year, shows that financialisation of commodities has amplified and exaggerated instabilities and fluctuations.
Are we Heading for Another Global Primary Commodity Price Surge?
13 January, 2010, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
Well before the financial crisis broke out so violently in the US and caused ripple effects all over the world, most people in developing countries were already reeling under the effects of dramatic volatility in global food and fuel markets.
Service Exports in Developing Asia
10 September, 2009, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
Services exports have emerged as an important source of foreign exchange and even employment generation for many countries in developing Asia. This is part of the global explosion in services trade, which is evident from Chart 1.
The International Transmission of Fragility
10 May, 2009, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
The April 2009 edition of the IMF's Global Financial Stability Report is categorical. Global financial stability has deteriorated further since its last assessments in October and January, with conditions worsening more in emerging markets in recent months. Within emerging markets, while European countries have been affected most, the problem is acute elsewhere as well with some countries in Asia, which had emerged the growth pole in the world economy, being impacted severely.
Balance of Payments Portents
03 April, 2009, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
The rupee's recent fall, which has taken the currency's value to more than Rs. 50 to the US dollar, is one of the more visible ways in which the global crisis has affected India. Underlying that fall are developments on India's external front that can be directly attributed to the crisis
IT Firms and Financial Markets: A Changed Relationship
14 July, 2008, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
India's stock market has lost its lustre for those counting their wealth in terms of the value of the paper assets they hold. Between the end of October 2007 and early June this year, the Sensex has fallen from the 20000 level to around 15500, or by close to 23 per cent. That decline implies a substantial loss of paper wealth that hurts most those who bought into the market at its peak.
Dominance and Competition in the Indian IT Sector
10 September, 2007, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
Come July and, unfailingly, Dataquest-one of two private agencies that are sources of detailed information on India's IT sector-releases, over consecutive issues, its data on performance of the IT industry for the preceding financial year.
Agriculture's Role in Contemporary Development
23 May, 2007, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
The evidence of an acceleration in GDP growth in India increases, aided on occasion by periodic revisions in the base year used for constructing the estimates. While the factors accounting for this acceleration are still being debated, another unusual feature of this growth since the 1980s has received less attention:
The Vice-Grip of Finance
27 December, 2006, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
The stock market in Thailand collapsed after the government introduced limited market-based capital controls aimed at stalling the rapid appreciation of the Thai baht.
What Does the Upsurge in Global Capital Flows Indicate?
12 June, 2006, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
On the face of it, global capital markets have never been so active, and especially for flows related to developing countries. The past year witnessed a massive and broad-based increase in capital flows to developing countries, which reached a net level of $491 billion.
Exploding Imports
22 March, 2006, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
Recent trade patterns in India have been characterised by a burgeoning trade deficit despite very high rates of growth of export, which implies that import growth in value terms has been even more rapid. Indeed, the past few years have witnessed the highest rate of growth of imports of any three year period in the past thirty years.
India's Savings Rate Surge
24 February, 2006, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
The domestic savings rate or the ratio of gross savings to GDP is estimated by the CSO to have touched a record level of 29.1 per cent in 2004-05. This implies an increase of 5.5 percentage points since 2001-02, before which the rate had remained stagnant and even declined since the mid-1990s. The recent revision of the weighting system and revision of the base year from 1993-94 to 1999-00 has made a difference to the savings rate estimates for individual years for which estimates for both series are available. But the trend remains broadly the same.
The Export Growth Story
07 February, 2006, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
Economic reforms since 1991 have been strongly associated with external trade liberalisation. As officially stated, the chief purpose of this was to bring domestic relative prices into line with world prices, thereby supposedly creating conditions for greater efficiency and competitiveness of domestic production.
IT- Driven Offshoring: The Exaggerated "Development Opportunity"
27 January, 2006, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
This paper considers the recent boom in IT-driven offshoring in India and examines the potential for this to become a major source of economic growth in the future.
Increasing Public Expenditure on Education
11 November, 2005, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
The UPA Government has committed to increasing the share of public spending on education to 6 per cent of GDP. In this edition of MacroScan, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh assess the implications of this in relation to the evident social needs.
New ''Knowledge'' and the Farming Community
01 August, 2005, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
These days there is much talk of transforming India into a ''knowledge society'' producing goods and services rich in explicit and implicit knowledge. Even farmers are to be empowered into becoming ''knowledge workers'' using the latest available information and knowledge about cultivation practices, inputs and output markets.
The Death of Fiscal Federalism?
06 June, 2005, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
The crippling role of the debt burden in affecting the finances of state governments in India has been noted in the previous issue of MacroScan. The Twelfth Finance Commission (hereafter TFC) specifically addressed this issue, as one of its terms of reference specified that ''the Commission may, after making as assessment of the debt position of the States as on 31 March 2004, suggest such corrective measures as are deemed necessary, consistent with macroeconomic stability and debt sustainability.''

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