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Economic Recovery or A Statistical Illusion: Some observations on recent estimates of GDP growth
07 December, 2017, Vikas Rawal
On November 30th, the Central Statistical Office (CSO) came out with quarterly estimates of GDP for the second quarter (June to Sep) of 2017. Predictably, analysts and spokespersons of the government spent the evening in newsrooms of various TV channels celebrating what they claimed was a sign of revival of the economy.
Unbalanced global growth
08 November, 2017, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
The distribution of the weak global economic recovery since the Great Recession provides little reason for optimism about the future.
How Wage-led Growth has Powered Argentina's Economic Recovery
31 August, 2012, Jayati Ghosh
The manner in which Argentina has been able to generate more genuinely inclusive growth, through the promotion of productive and fairly remunerated employment and a different approach to social protection, sets a bright example of alternative strategy. This could be a learning lesson for all other countries trying to come out of the current recessionary trends.
Prospects for the World Economy in 2012
27 December, 2011, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
: 2011 revealed that the much vaunted economic recovery after the Great Recession was not inherently sustainable, as the recent problems of global capitalism, including those associated with excessive debt build-up, were reflected in new areas and caused economic slowdown across the world. Against the backdrop of economic trends in 2011, this article assesses the prospects for the world economy in 2012.
Employment Generation as an Economic Strategy for Uncertain Times
14 November, 2011, Jayati Ghosh
This is the acceptance speech made by the author at the award function of the ILO Decent Work Research Prize, 2010. Discussing the growing pressures in the current global scenario, she argues for a shift in macroeconomic strategy towards domestic wage- and employment-led growth as a means to sustainable growth, as well as an end in itself.
The G20 and Employment Outlook
12 October, 2011, Jayati Ghosh
A recent ILO document on employment and labour market outlook in G20 countries points towards an economic crisis of major magnitude in most of them. According to the report, the two key challenges for global policy makers at present are to ensure better utilisation of labour resources and better quality jobs.
Global Oil Prices
13 July, 2011, Jayati Ghosh
Recent price changes in global oil markets are increasingly affected by forces that have more to do with financial speculation and expectations than with current movements in demand and supply. In the current oil price surge, the real gainers are the financial speculators in oil futures markets and the big oil companies.
Changing Guard at the IMF?
06 July, 2011, Jayati Ghosh
The change of guard at the IMF would not make a difference as long as there is no significant change in the Fund's approach to economic policies. Despite the experience of continually getting it wrong in so many countries over so many decades, the Fund is still persisting in imposing the blatantly counterproductive strategy of fiscal austerity everywhere.
The Spectre of Public Debt
21 June, 2010, C.P. Chandrasekhar
The sovereign debt crisis of Greece has led to appeals for a reduction in the size of public debt in countries worldwide. Given that increasing taxes and reducing expenditures may not be considered viable options, there would soon be strident calls for disinvestment and privatisation aimed at generating the resources needed for this.
International Conference on 'Recovery or Bubble? The Global Economy Today', organised by International Development Economics Associates (IDEAs), Gulmohar Hall, Indian Habitat Centre, New Delhi, 29-30 January 2010.
08 January, 2010,
While production and employment indicators in many countries point to stabilisation and recovery from the economic recession in the aftermath of the global financial crisis, there are debates about the economic recovery that is underway and fears of a new speculative boom on which the global recovery rides. These principally relate to the policy decisions taken in the US and many other countries in response to the financial crisis which involved easy monetary policy to save the financial system and real economy from collapse, and fiscal stimuli to trigger a recovery. There are signs of a bubble similar to the one which led to the credit-financed housing and consumer-spending boom that preceded the 2008 downturn
Oil prices and the world economy
23 August, 2004, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
In addition, the threats of terrorist attacks in the world's largest oil producer, Saudi Arabia, are growing and also have been increasingly realised in recent months. The nervousness this has created in world markets has not been neutralised by OPEC's promises of boosting production.
Pleasure and Pain in Pakistan
19 April, 2004, Jayati Ghosh
The current economic recovery in Pakistan, which comes after the dismal decade of the 1990s, is based on increased foreign exchange inflows into the economy associated with the particular strategic choices made by the Musharraf regime. Domestically, the impetus to growth and employment generation still remain limited.
Jobs and Elections across the World in 2004
11 February, 2004, Jayati Ghosh
This is a momentous year for electoral politics, not just in India, but in the world. Along with national elections here in India, there are important elections due in other parts of the world - most notably in the United States. We have all learned the unfortunate truth that the outcome of the US elections matters to all of us and can even change the course of global politics and economics, not to mention destroy the lives of innocent people in the opposite part of the globe. So we are forced to give it some attention.
Can Occupation Fuel a US Recovery?
19 August, 2003, C.P. Chandrasekhar
The last day of July 2003 brought news of an unexpected vigour in US economic growth. Commerce Department figures showed that in the second quarter of the year, the US economy grew by 2.4 per cent, well above the 1.5 per cent predicted by many analysts.
Danger Signals for the Indian Economy
11 July, 2002, Jayati Ghosh
The new Finance Minister, Mr. Jaswant Singh, has already declared his intention to try and increase purchasing power, especially of the domestic middle classes. Clearly, the government has designed this particular Cabinet switch of portfolios to restore the government's popularity, and therefore its electoral fortunes, before the next general elections. The aim, presumably, is to undo the damage to the BJP's middle class constituency which was caused by the last Budget presented by Mr. Yashwant Sinha.
The Road to Ruin
25 May, 2002, C. Rammanohar Reddy
Those who speak out against a war must be prepared for accusations of being soft in brain and brawn. But this should not be surprising when war hysteria seems to be the national mood. Strangely though, the hysteria is restricted to the members of the political, chattering and middle classes who are ready to offer others' blood to play out their notions of patriotism.
Capital Markets, Unsustainable Growth & Instability
04 April, 2001, Jayati Ghosh
For a relatively brief period in the aftermath of the Southeast Asian financial crisis, Indian policy makers did look to the region to extract some lessons for the Indian government's own plans regarding capital account liberalisation. Unfortunately, that period was all too brief. The apparent economic recovery in the region beginning in 1999, and the effective abandonment at the multilateral level of any serious discussion of reform of the international financial regime, both served to create a sense of complacency and to mute discussions of alternative trajectories.

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