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External Commercial Borrowings: Difficult times ahead
12 October, 2018, Parthapratim Pal and Ahana Bose
The rise in the short term benchmark interest rates by the Federal Reserve of United States may lead to higher capital outflows for India. This would result in increased downward pressure on the rupee, and with the oil prices rising in light of the sanctions on oil exports from Iran, international borrowing is becoming costlier, and will become even more so in the short to medium term.
Whither Indian Economy?
24 September, 2018, Sunanda Sen
While there are ongoing discussions on rupee depreciation amidst an atmosphere of apprehension about the economy and polity of the country, official sources have continued to deny any possible threat to the economy. The defensive position advanced from the official quarters do not, however, stand scrutiny if one recognises the fact that none of those indicators of a robust economy will be sustainable in the face of slippages running through the economy.
The Indian Economy in a Tailspin
24 September, 2018, Prabhat Patnaik
A combination of direct import controls on inessential items, reduction of petro-product prices, measures for reducing the consumption of such products, and direct taxation, especially on wealth, is the obvious way of getting out of the tailspin in which the Indian economy is currently caught. There is no alternative to these measures if we are to avoid the fate of countries that eventually run to the IMF and get caught in the vice-like grip of “austerity”.
The State of the Economy
23 July, 2018, Prabhat Patnaik
The Indian Economy is facing remarkable combination of stagnation, inflation and a burgeoning trade deficit which has been erroneously attributed to the rise in oil prices alone.
The Gathering Storm Clouds
28 May, 2018, Praveen Jha & Amit Chakraborty
The Indian Economy has all along been critically dependent upon the inflow of speculative finance to sustain its balance of payment. It now faces threatening prospects of a spiral as international crude oil prices and U.S. interest rates, that kept its import bill restricted, are on the rise.
OBITUARY | Ashok Mitra, the Former Bengal Finance Minister Who Wished He Were Forgotten
03 May, 2018, Subhanil Chowdhury
He disliked being praised. In the last few lines of his memoirs Aapila Chaapila, he wished that he may be forgotten by everybody, he did not want his readers to remember him. Therefore, he would have strongly disagreed with this obituary of his. But those who knew him, loved him would agree that it is impossible to forget him.
Technological Change and Impoverishment
19 March, 2018, Prabhat Patnaik
Socio-economic effects of technological change depend upon the property relations within the system they occur. While in socialism higher labour productivity can improve the conditions of workers, in capitalism, the same has lead to growing relative labour reserves, and hence impoverishment.
The Economic Survey 2017-18
04 February, 2018, Prabhat Patnaik
Like the person on the proverbial tiger, the Indian economy is currently riding a precarious course. The Government of India’s Economic Survey for 2017-18 recognizes this frankly, but its panacea is to keep one’s fingers crossed and hope that the ride continues.
Where's the money, Mr Jaitley?
02 February, 2018, Jayati Ghosh
Window-dressing as a substitute to actually addressing the problem has become a norm under the Modi regime and the Budget 2018-19 reflects that. The actual increases in financial outlay are shockingly low in relation to the massive promises made. This is deeply worrying, as the Indian economy now desperately requires major measures to ensure a sustainable revival of economic activity.
The Indian economy in 2017
02 January, 2018, Jayati Ghosh
This was the year that the economy tanked. Not necessarily in terms of official growth figures: according to the CSO, GDP growth decelerated, but not by that much....
The Demise of Bank Credit
02 January, 2018, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
Growing economies generally show increasing deployment of bank credit – but in India this has been decreasing for years and recently has been almost flat. What does this suggest about the growth process and the health of the Indian economy?
Strangulating the Informal Economy
12 October, 2017, Prabhat Patnaik
The current slowdown in the economy, aggravated by the persistent world economic crisis, has much to do with the twin coercive instruments of demonetisation and GST wielded by the state to strangulate the informal economy in a bid to formalise it.
Economy Plunging Headlong into Recession
16 August, 2017, Prabhat Patnaik
The few days old Volume II of the Economic Survey by Ministry of Finance shows a GVA growth rate much less than that of the previous year, and that too artificially boosted by seasonal variations in non-core sectors. This deceleration is most likely to continue, with growing NPAs and plunging exports, and interest rate cuts will not help in a demand-constrained economy unless the government starts thinking beyond “fiscal rectitude”.
A Simple Arithmetic
25 May, 2017, Prabhat Patnaik
The advance GDP estimates for 2016-17, however calculated,show a grim picture of the economy. The real per capita income of the agriculture-dependent population, which constitutes half the country's populace, has remained stagnant or even marginally declined during the three years of the Modi government. While the pursuit of neoliberal policies can be held responsible for this, treating the aggregate growth as a “great achievement” for political mileage is unwarranted.
The De-digitisation of India
25 April, 2017, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
Despite the government’s efforts to digitise the Indian economy forcibly, non-cash forms of payment appear to have declined as more currency has been made available to the public. This points to major flaws in the government’s coercive approach and the underlying rationale for cashlessness.
Industrial Growth and Demonetization
24 April, 2017, Prabhat Patnaik
Recent data on the manufacturing sector dispel all the lies that government propaganda has been peddling of late about demonetization having had no recessionary effect.
Demonetisation Decoded: A critique of India's currency experiment
12 April, 2017, Jayati Ghosh, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Prabhat Patnaik
In a surprise move, on November 8, 2016, the Indian government announced that the currency notes of Rs 500 and Rs 1000 denomination cease to be legal tender from the midnight of that very date. The arguments advanced in support of the move was that this would root out black money and take care of counterfeiting of currencies; however, withdrawing more than 85 per cent of the currency notes in circulation has been a major hit on India’s poor and lower middle classes.
Narendra Modi on Poverty
20 March, 2017, Prabhat Patnaik
When Narendra Modi talks of shifting away from giving doles to the poor, what he has in mind is that the money being currently used for welfare schemes for the poor should be withdrawn from such schemes and handed over to the corporate magnates.
Quarterly GDP Estimates: Curiouser and curiouser
02 March, 2017, Jayati Ghosh
CSO's latest GDP estimates for the third quarter throw up some real surprises as these run counter to all the evidence of depressed demand, of massive drops in sales, of job losses and of a significant hit especially on small scale and informal manufactured goods producers following demonetisation.
Barbara Harriss-White on Demonetisation
16 January, 2017,
The notable political economist Barbara Harriss-White, in her interview with Madras Courier has painted a comprehensive picture of what demonetisation has done to India's democracy, agriculture, the 'black economy' and society.

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