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Market Fever and its Aftermath
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| 13 March, 2018,
C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh |
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As fears of a market downturn cloud sentiment, the factors that led up to the bull run and their implications need to be studied and learnt from.
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The Indian economy in 2017
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| 02 January, 2018,
Jayati Ghosh |
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This was the year that the economy tanked. Not necessarily in terms of official growth figures: according to the CSO, GDP growth decelerated, but not by that much....
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Stock Market: Does patience pay
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| 21 December, 2015,
C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh |
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The perception that investors looking for above average returns can turn to the stock market so long as they are willing to stay invested for extended periods doesn’t hold.
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The Retail Investor as Anchor
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| 06 October, 2015,
C.P. Chandrasekhar |
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A pullout by FIIs underlies the market decline is broadly agreed upon, but that the decline would have been much greater but for a contrary entry of retail investors is less commented on.
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No Case for Complacence
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| 05 October, 2015,
C.P. Chandrasekhar |
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The yuan depreciation can trigger a chain of events that would convert the creeping world recession into another full-fledged crisis and India cannot be immune from contagion.
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Black Notes in the Stock Market
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| 17 August, 2015,
C.P. Chandrasekhar |
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Even though SIT strongly recommends that PNs should be phased out if they cannot be made more transparent, they are unlikely to be banned as the government fears investor exit.
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Great Dream of Prosperity
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| 21 July, 2015,
C.P. Chandrasekhar |
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The emphasis on the latest GDP growth numbers, when the figures from other indicators point to the opposite, may be the government’s only option to show that all is well.
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The Economy: The end of euphoria
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| 27 May, 2015,
C.P. Chandrasekhar |
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Despite having a good fortune of lower international oil prices, the Modi government failed to deliver growth in its first year while the expectations are still very high.
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Is the Bull Run Over?
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| 08 May, 2015,
C.P. Chandrasekhar |
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Downturn in financial market is inevitable, but the fact that a host of investors driven by the herd instinct live in denial complicates matters and worsens the outcome.
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Indian Exceptionalism
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| 15 April, 2015,
C.P. Chandrasekhar |
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Official satisfaction with the decision by Moody's to raise India's sovereign rating may be ignoring the possibility that the agency missed an important source of vulnerability.
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Households and India’s Stock Markets
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| 17 February, 2015,
C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh |
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Whilst India's stock markets touch dizzying heights, households are withdrawing from the market as they are influenced more by returns registered in short periods.
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Debt in Asian vulnerability
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| 25 November, 2014,
C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh |
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Amidst stock market euphoria, the growing international debt exposure of certain Asian countries, particularly Hong Kong, China and India, is a matter of major concern.
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The Herd Instinct at Work?
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| 26 September, 2014,
C.P. Chandrasekhar |
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The SENSEX is driven by herd instinct of FII inflow coming with assumptions which are at best speculative; the trend may get reversed in case of a rise in the interest rate.
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The Rupee's Climb
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| 23 May, 2014,
C.P. Chandrasekhar |
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A surge of capital inflow appreciated the rupee while the RBI is not keen to intervene due to inflation implications. Rupee may stabilise or start depreciating again later.
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Stock Market Boom amidst Economic Crisis
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| 19 May, 2014,
Prabhat Patnaik |
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The stock market boom, within a slowdown in the economy, serves the interest of the finance capital, and the crisis cannot be addressed because the boom has to be sustained.
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Pre-election Euphoria?
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| 15 April, 2014,
C.P. Chandrasekhar |
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The recent surge in the Sensex despite sagging performance of the overall economy reflects selective speculation by international finance which makes it more volatile.
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The Sensex and the Economy
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| 08 April, 2013,
C.P. Chandrasekhar |
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The central bank's cheap credit and easy money policies have helped the Indian stock market to remain reasonably positioned even when the economy sinks.
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The Insensitive Sensex
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| 15 October, 2012,
C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh |
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While growth slows down in India, the only index faring well is the Sensex. The short term speculators armed with central bank’s cheap credit and easy money policies have helped it remain high though volatile.
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Market Madness Again
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| 11 October, 2010,
C.P. Chandrasekhar |
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The signals emanating from the highest economic policy making quarters have helped talk up the Indian market, allowing equity prices to outrace earnings and fundamentals that has resulted in the current speculative boom that seems similar to the bubble that burst not so long ago. This signals that it is time the government regulates and limits the capital inflows.
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Ignoring Asset Price Inflation
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| 22 September, 2010,
C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh |
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The recent action taken by the Reserve Bank of India to hike repo and reverse repo rates has been interpreted as a shift in focus to inflation control resulting from a combination of comfortable growth figures and disconcerting increases in the prices of goods, especially food articles.
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