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The Demise of Bank Credit
02 January, 2018, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
Growing economies generally show increasing deployment of bank credit – but in India this has been decreasing for years and recently has been almost flat. What does this suggest about the growth process and the health of the Indian economy?
Create a Crisis and make it Worse
12 October, 2017, C.P. Chandrasekhar
The government’s proposal to set up an all-powerful entity to solve the NPA problem has serious implications for banks and could leave them vulnerable to, among other things, runs by depositors.
The Emerging Crisis in Real Estate
26 September, 2017, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
The slow down and partial crisis in India’s real estate sector reflects the challenges facing post-reform growth in India.
'Riskless Capitalism' in India: Bank credit and economic activity
07 August, 2017, Rohit Azad, Prasenjit Bose & Zico Dasgupta
The Indian growth story of the 2000s’ cannot be over-simplistically explained as a result of “market-oriented” reforms. Public sector bank credit-financed investments, particularly in the infrastructure sector, played a significant role in sustaining growth, most crucially after the global economic crisis. Such a growth trajectory, however, proved to be unsustainable with the expansionary phase coming to an end in 2011–12 and bad loans piling up in the banking system.
The Question Of Farm - Loan Waiver
23 June, 2017, Prabhat Patnaik
The primary reason why loan-waiver is being demanded at present is not an output fall owing to any natural calamity. It is the price-fall on account of the bumper harvest that underlies this demand. It is the breaking down of an appropriate institutional mechanism that is responsible for the peasants’ distress and periodic demands for loan-waivers.
Budget 2017-18: The Macroeconomic Perspective
03 March, 2017, C.P. Chandrasekhar
One reason why the government chose fiscal consolidation instead of an expansionary budget in the wake of demonetisation is its erroneous belief that demonetisation in itself would deliver fiscal benefits.
Finance Capital and the Nature of Capitalism in India Today
25 November, 2016, C.P. Chandrasekhar
This article explains how the growing dependence on foreign finance capital has distorted India’s growth. Due to the accumulated presence of foreign capital in the country since liberalisation, it is turning moribund and losing sovereignty.
The Chimera of a 'Cashless' Economy
18 November, 2016, Prabhat Patnaik
In its attempt of moving towards a cashless economy, when the government is forcing people to do so through the demonetisation exercise it is an act of sheer authoritarianism that is no less reprehensible than an attack on people's civil liberties.
Asian Banks in Trouble
02 January, 2015, C.P. Chandrasekhar
Emerging market economies in Asia are confronted with signs of bank fragility owing to overexposure to the private sector, whose mounting external debt compounds the problem.
In Search of a New Industrial Stimulus
24 October, 2014, C.P. Chandrasekhar
The new Modi slogan ‘Make in India’ is an old idea with a new label and there is no reason to believe that a new label can deliver the success that has been thus far elusive.
The Looming Banking Crisis
04 September, 2013, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
The crisis engulfing the Indian economy is expected to affect the corporates and the infrastructural projects burdened with large debt, impacting the Indian banking sector.
Financial Convergence in Asia
05 September, 2012, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
Even as there are dissimilar financial structures, the recent Asian experience with financial convergence suggests that financial proliferation largely facilitates new lines of business in financial services and affects the real economy more from the demand side by the debt-financed household expenditure it promotes. Thus excessive exposure to retail markets is becoming a source of fragility in these countries just as it did in the developed countries.
Employment Shifts after the Global Crisis
04 October, 2011, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
The stagnation of employment in developed countries and apparent recovery in developing countries after the Great Recession of 2008-09 have renewed perceptions of a global shift in employment to the developing world, particularly in manufacturing activities. This article uses the most recent available ILO data to examine the extent to which such a shift is actually occurring.
The Danger of a Double Dip
29 January, 2010, C.P. Chandrasekhar
In the current circumstances, dealing with inflation by tightening monetary policy and exiting from the fiscal stimulus may not be a good idea if the government does not increase its outlays in areas other than wages and salaries in the next fiscal.
The Recovery in Asia
18 November, 2009, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
As the world looks to full stabilisation and a rebound from the crisis due to the efforts of governments, clearly, it is finance rather than the real economy that has benefited more from those initiatives.
Has a Global Contagion Affected Indian Finance?
24 April, 2009, C.P. Chandrasekhar
One probable reason why the recently released report of the Financial Sector Assessment Programme could not attract due attention is that the very assumption of the benefits of financial integration, on which the FSAP is anchored, is nullified by the current recession in the real economy. However, as this article shows, the report helps in a better understanding of the effect of the global recession on the Indian financial system.
In Search of a Real Stimulus
11 December, 2008, Jayati Ghosh
Now that the economic slowdown is clearly making itself felt in both economic activity and employment, the central government has finally decided to do something about it. The trouble is that the economic package announced on Sunday is simply too feeble to go very far and, even combined with the monetary policy measures announced earlier
Prospect of an Industrial Recession
04 November, 2008, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
Expectations are that India would experience an industrial slowdown triggered by the effects of the financial turmoil on the real economy. The most up to date evidence on the growth of the manufacturing sector is the movement of the Index of Industrial Production (IIP), which is a lead indicator of trends in registered manufacturing.
The Industrial Upturn
05 November, 2007, C.P. Chandrasekhar
With the Sensex defying all laws of economic gravity, the disconnect between India’s booming financial sector and its real economy has only worsened. Few would argue that the performance of the real economy can explain the recent exuberance in the stock markets. So, this may be a good time to look to the real economy to introduce an element of moderation into assessments of economic performance.
Banking on Home Builders
14 July, 2007, C.P. Chandrasekhar
Banking in India is changing face, looking to the mortgage market and personal debt as the route to profit. Having been permitted, in fact encouraged, to chase profits in markets that were restricted earlier and with instruments that were rare or non-existent, banks are choosing to change their portfolios rather sharply.

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