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External Commercial Borrowings: Difficult times ahead
12 October, 2018, Parthapratim Pal and Ahana Bose
The rise in the short term benchmark interest rates by the Federal Reserve of United States may lead to higher capital outflows for India. This would result in increased downward pressure on the rupee, and with the oil prices rising in light of the sanctions on oil exports from Iran, international borrowing is becoming costlier, and will become even more so in the short to medium term.
Ostrich-like in Peacock Nation
01 October, 2018, C.P. Chandrasekhar
In the midst of a crisis reflected in a collapsing rupee, India’s BJP government is acting ostrich-like, burying its head in the ground. Nothing illustrates this better than its much-delayed response to the collapse of the rupee with a set of measures that are the opposite of what is needed.
Whither Indian Economy?
24 September, 2018, Sunanda Sen
While there are ongoing discussions on rupee depreciation amidst an atmosphere of apprehension about the economy and polity of the country, official sources have continued to deny any possible threat to the economy. The defensive position advanced from the official quarters do not, however, stand scrutiny if one recognises the fact that none of those indicators of a robust economy will be sustainable in the face of slippages running through the economy.
Pakistan: Who needs a crisis?
29 August, 2018, C.P. Chandrasekhar
As Pakistan’s new Prime Minister, Imran Khan faces the current balance of payments, its important to look at Pakistan’s debt history, especially in light of its association with China’s Belt and Road Initiative. With IMF’s support to Pakistan in the past, it is to be seen how a proxy stand-off between a retreating power and a rising one plays out.
Institutional Investors and Indian Markets
01 August, 2018, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
In these uncertain times, equity markets in India seemed to be protected from extreme volatility. But the factors behind such resilience could also result in sudden stops.
A Legacy of Vulnerability
12 July, 2018, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
Outstanding foreign bank claims that accumulated during the post-crisis period of easy and cheap credit are a source of vulnerability in the new environment.
Shadow cast by the rupee
07 June, 2018, C.P. Chandrasekhar
The rupee has sharply depreciated in the recent weeks giving reason for concern. The external events of rise in oil prices and rate of interest in advanced economies has led to a surge in the current account deficit and capital outflows respectively. The success of 'the liberalization reforms' lies in the huge capital inflows and thus, has enhanced the periodic bouts of the rupee, hinting to symptoms of a bubble economy.
The Gathering Storm Clouds
28 May, 2018, Praveen Jha & Amit Chakraborty
The Indian Economy has all along been critically dependent upon the inflow of speculative finance to sustain its balance of payment. It now faces threatening prospects of a spiral as international crude oil prices and U.S. interest rates, that kept its import bill restricted, are on the rise.
A Bull in a China Shop
26 September, 2017, Prabhat Patnaik
The BJP government, through demonetization and GST, coupled with the world economic situation, it is causing a rare co-occurrence of three phenomena: a stagnation of the countrys’ economy, a revival of inflation, and a yawning current account deficit on the balance of payments. As the era of cheap money in the U.S. and elsewhere come to an end, Indian assets might pass into foreign hands.
The Economy under Modi
20 June, 2017, Prabhat Patnaik
As per official data, half of the countrys population witnessed no improvement in real per capita income over the three Modi years. Other indicators like the demand from net exports, Central Government expenditure (as a proportion of nominal GDP) and number of new jobs created in the organized sector, all reflect a gloomy picture of the Indian economy. The government has been keen on keeping finance capital happy while compromising on these matters.
China's Capital Flight Syndrome
30 January, 2017, C.P. Chandrasekhar
The sudden collapse in reserves due to an outflow of capital in a country that was considered the favoured destination for FDI points towards the fact that China is now paying the price for the capital account liberalisation measures adopted with its entry into the WTO.
Demonetization as the Basis for a Fiscal Stimulus
07 December, 2016, Prabhat Patnaik
What the BJP spokespersons are putting forward that the cash which gets disabled in the black economy would enable the government to spend more on infrastructure or provide cash transfers to the people is sheer deception.
Is the Rupee "Weakening"
18 January, 2016, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
While much concern being expressed about the weakening rupee, it is not the past record that is the problem; rather, its likely direction in the near future is a cause for worry.
No Case for Complacence
05 October, 2015, C.P. Chandrasekhar
The yuan depreciation can trigger a chain of events that would convert the creeping world recession into another full-fledged crisis and India cannot be immune from contagion.
The Devaluation of the Yuan
08 September, 2015, Prabhat Patnaik
With the depreciation in the Chinese yuan, the world economy in all probability is going to face a deflation and a "debt-deflation" syndrome.
China's RenMinBi Strategy
18 August, 2015, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
The sudden depreciation of Chinese currency, that has impacted global markets, may be an attempt to revive export growth and provide stimulus to growth to the flagging economy.
Macroeconomic Vulnerability and the Rupees Decline
28 October, 2013, C.P. Chandrasekhar
The measures adopted by the government to stem the rupee depreciation rather than being a success may well lead India into a crisis.
How Should We Deal with the Current Account Deficit?
17 September, 2013, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
Although the Rupee has stabilised for the moment, the resolution of India's external crisis is far from sight as the basic source of the problem still remains unaddressed.
Addressing India's External Vulnerability
12 September, 2013, C.P. Chandrasekhar
Stringent quantitative restrictions on the volume of permitted gold imports are a must for addressing the economic difficulties that India faces now.
The Looming Banking Crisis
04 September, 2013, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
The crisis engulfing the Indian economy is expected to affect the corporates and the infrastructural projects burdened with large debt, impacting the Indian banking sector.

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