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The return of the oil threat
11 May, 2018, C.P. Chandrasekhar
As oil-producing countries, especially Saudi Arabia and Russia, stick to their reduced outputs and as Trump threatens to isolate Iran with sanctions once again, the spectre of high oil prices and the accompanying inflation seem very real.
The Economic Survey 2017-18
04 February, 2018, Prabhat Patnaik
Like the person on the proverbial tiger, the Indian economy is currently riding a precarious course. The Government of India’s Economic Survey for 2017-18 recognizes this frankly, but its panacea is to keep one’s fingers crossed and hope that the ride continues.
Window Dressing Budgetary Figures
31 January, 2018, C.P. Chandrasekhar
Budget 2018-19 will feature a window dressed Revised Estimate to ensure that the fiscal deficit is on target. The government’s decision to sell its stake in HPCL to ONGC is only one more step in that direction.
The Indian economy in 2017
02 January, 2018, Jayati Ghosh
This was the year that the economy tanked. Not necessarily in terms of official growth figures: according to the CSO, GDP growth decelerated, but not by that much....
Mixed signals from the external sector
28 September, 2017, C.P. Chandrasekhar
Large capital inflows have boosted foreign exchange reserves and resulted in the rupee strengthening. Although exports have not done badly, the widening trade deficit owing to a rise in the import bill can worsen the current account position and create a vicious circle.
A Bull in a China Shop
26 September, 2017, Prabhat Patnaik
The BJP government, through demonetization and GST, coupled with the world economic situation, it is causing a rare co-occurrence of three phenomena: a stagnation of the countrys’ economy, a revival of inflation, and a yawning current account deficit on the balance of payments. As the era of cheap money in the U.S. and elsewhere come to an end, Indian assets might pass into foreign hands.
The Economy under Modi
20 June, 2017, Prabhat Patnaik
As per official data, half of the countryís population witnessed no improvement in real per capita income over the three Modi years. Other indicators like the demand from net exports, Central Government expenditure (as a proportion of nominal GDP) and number of new jobs created in the organized sector, all reflect a gloomy picture of the Indian economy. The government has been keen on keeping finance capital happy while compromising on these matters.
Will We Miss the Budget Opportunity?
31 January, 2017, Jayati Ghosh
The economic slowdown, induced almost entirely by demonetisation, necessarily requires significantly enhanced public spending; but it doesnít appear to be forthcoming.
Rajan's Exit
15 September, 2016, Prabhat Patnaik
The reason for the governmentís dithering over an extension of Raghuram Rajanís term, which led to his decision not to ask for one, cannot be attributed to his stance on interest rates.
An Overburdened Instrument
06 September, 2016, C.P. Chandrasekhar
The interest rate that is seen as being the principal instrument for macroeconomic management is proving to be a blunt tool when combatting inflation or promoting growth.
A Different Oil Shock
04 February, 2016, C.P. Chandrasekhar
Given the magnitude of the oil price fall, the world economy seems set for a deflationary crisis rather than expansionary deflation.
Skating on Thin Ice
01 June, 2015, Prabhat Patnaik
Indian economy, under the first year of Modiís rule, has experienced massive attack on the welfare programmes, sluggish growth of exports and an increase in the trade deficit.
Oil: The big 100 per cent story
02 February, 2015, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
In a puzzling development, some financial markets registered a decline in the wake of the recent dramatic fall in oil prices. So, is the oil price fall not all good news?
Who's Really Paying for Oil
07 January, 2015, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
As the central government raises excise duties on petroleum products yet again, it is the poor that end up paying the price.
Bad News in the Good Days
16 December, 2014, C.P. Chandrasekhar
While the collapse in oil prices and moderation in food price inflation are good news for the Modi government, there is a real danger of it turning complacent as a result.
Deregulating Diesel Prices
30 October, 2014, Jayati Ghosh
Linking the price of oil to global market prices is simply another way of putting the squeeze on mass consumers whose incomes are well below the global average.
Exploiting the Oil Price Crash
30 October, 2014, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
The government has decided to exploit the recent sharp decline in oil prices to push deregulation. But this may not help growth nor prove wise in the medium term.
The Missing Honeymoon
09 July, 2014, C.P. Chandrasekhar
The government's decisiveness in ensuring quick clearances for big, infrastructure projects would please the corporate sector and private capital, but not the rest of India.
Banking on Debt
10 July, 2012, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
The latest figures on Indiaís external account reveal that the problem of declining foreign exchange reserves is the result principally of the widening of the current account deficit, which was far too large to be covered by an increase in capital inflows. While the government may do well to address the vulnerability caused by a rising import bill, especially on account of gold imports, it has been adding to external vulnerability by encouraging further inflows of speculative debt capital.
The Blame Game around Oil
13 June, 2012, C.P. Chandrasekhar
It is not that the UPA government is running out of alternatives to tackle the woes caused by the oil and currency shocks. The absence of decisive policies and lack of inner consensus have trapped the government in a debate on who would bear the burden and how the burden should be shared. A combination of subsidies and tax reforms can address the issue. But it calls for easing the grip of neoliberal thinking over the UPA.

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