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Ostrich-like in Peacock Nation
01 October, 2018, C.P. Chandrasekhar
In the midst of a crisis reflected in a collapsing rupee, India’s BJP government is acting ostrich-like, burying its head in the ground. Nothing illustrates this better than its much-delayed response to the collapse of the rupee with a set of measures that are the opposite of what is needed.
India's External Vulnerability
26 September, 2018, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
While the rise in oil prices explains the sudden deterioration of the current account balance in India's external payments, it also signals the vulnerability to inevitable shocks that is inherent in the changing structure of India's external trade relations.
Whither Indian Economy?
24 September, 2018, Sunanda Sen
While there are ongoing discussions on rupee depreciation amidst an atmosphere of apprehension about the economy and polity of the country, official sources have continued to deny any possible threat to the economy. The defensive position advanced from the official quarters do not, however, stand scrutiny if one recognises the fact that none of those indicators of a robust economy will be sustainable in the face of slippages running through the economy.
The Indian Economy in a Tailspin
24 September, 2018, Prabhat Patnaik
A combination of direct import controls on inessential items, reduction of petro-product prices, measures for reducing the consumption of such products, and direct taxation, especially on wealth, is the obvious way of getting out of the tailspin in which the Indian economy is currently caught. There is no alternative to these measures if we are to avoid the fate of countries that eventually run to the IMF and get caught in the vice-like grip of “austerity”.
Pakistan: Who needs a crisis?
29 August, 2018, C.P. Chandrasekhar
As Pakistan’s new Prime Minister, Imran Khan faces the current balance of payments, its important to look at Pakistan’s debt history, especially in light of its association with China’s Belt and Road Initiative. With IMF’s support to Pakistan in the past, it is to be seen how a proxy stand-off between a retreating power and a rising one plays out.
The State of the Economy
23 July, 2018, Prabhat Patnaik
The Indian Economy is facing remarkable combination of stagnation, inflation and a burgeoning trade deficit which has been erroneously attributed to the rise in oil prices alone.
Shadow cast by the rupee
07 June, 2018, C.P. Chandrasekhar
The rupee has sharply depreciated in the recent weeks giving reason for concern. The external events of rise in oil prices and rate of interest in advanced economies has led to a surge in the current account deficit and capital outflows respectively. The success of 'the liberalization reforms' lies in the huge capital inflows and thus, has enhanced the periodic bouts of the rupee, hinting to symptoms of a bubble economy.
The Gathering Storm Clouds
28 May, 2018, Praveen Jha & Amit Chakraborty
The Indian Economy has all along been critically dependent upon the inflow of speculative finance to sustain its balance of payment. It now faces threatening prospects of a spiral as international crude oil prices and U.S. interest rates, that kept its import bill restricted, are on the rise.
Budget 2018-19: No money where the mouth is
20 February, 2018, C.P. Chandrasekhar
Rhetoric and meagre show of financing aimed at the neglected and marginalized sections, to address the pre-election imperative of the Budget have not even been able to fulfil the irrational fiscal deficit targets of the FM, even with massive disinvestment and absence of fund allocation.
A Year of Wilful Economic Disaster
08 January, 2018, Prabhat Patnaik
The uniqueness of 2017 lies in the fact that never before has the country seen a government-caused economic crisis as serious as was witnessed in this year.
Mixed signals from the external sector
28 September, 2017, C.P. Chandrasekhar
Large capital inflows have boosted foreign exchange reserves and resulted in the rupee strengthening. Although exports have not done badly, the widening trade deficit owing to a rise in the import bill can worsen the current account position and create a vicious circle.
A Bull in a China Shop
26 September, 2017, Prabhat Patnaik
The BJP government, through demonetization and GST, coupled with the world economic situation, it is causing a rare co-occurrence of three phenomena: a stagnation of the countrys’ economy, a revival of inflation, and a yawning current account deficit on the balance of payments. As the era of cheap money in the U.S. and elsewhere come to an end, Indian assets might pass into foreign hands.
Foreign Investor Appetite
14 September, 2017, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
A brief decline in portfolio inflows into equity markets has raised the question whether foreign investment flows into India have peaked. The evidence of investments in debt markets suggest otherwise. That, however, need not be all good news.
The Economy: 70 years after Independence
30 August, 2017, C.P. Chandrasekhar
Indias' reliance on fortuitous and volatile stimuli to drive growth has resulted in inadequate job creation and widened inequalities while failing to address social deprivation.
Demonetisation Decoded: A critique of India's currency experiment
12 April, 2017, Jayati Ghosh, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Prabhat Patnaik
In a surprise move, on November 8, 2016, the Indian government announced that the currency notes of Rs 500 and Rs 1000 denomination cease to be legal tender from the midnight of that very date. The arguments advanced in support of the move was that this would root out black money and take care of counterfeiting of currencies; however, withdrawing more than 85 per cent of the currency notes in circulation has been a major hit on Indias poor and lower middle classes.
Buckling under Pressure
18 January, 2017, Jayati Ghosh
There has been a depressing erosion in the credibility of the major institutions that in different ways are vital for the functioning of our democracy as they are bent to the will of the ruling dispensation.
Barbara Harriss-White on Demonetisation
16 January, 2017,
The notable political economist Barbara Harriss-White, in her interview with Madras Courier has painted a comprehensive picture of what demonetisation has done to India's democracy, agriculture, the 'black economy' and society.
The Demonetization Fiasco
16 January, 2017, Prabhat Patnaik
Demonetization has been a fiasco in achieving its stated objective, apart from being a disaster for the people.
The Pursuit of Unreason
09 January, 2017, Prabhat Patnaik
Modis demonetization can be compared with Idi Amins fiat in 1972 as both are instances of extreme unreason. But while Amins was an untenable and extremely inhumane solution to the problem it addressed, Modis is a complete non-solution to the problem it addresses which is also inhumane, and hence constitutes an even greater act of unreason.
The Utter Failure of Demonetization: The RBI Says So Even as it Says Not
29 December, 2016, Surajit Mazumdar
From the figure of the value of fresh banknotes issued by banks by 19 December, it can be concluded that we are still very far away from the full replacement of the cash withdrawn from circulation and the severe cash shortage is going to continue well beyond 30 December.

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