The bear cartel's activity borders on bravado
because of the consequences that the slump in prices resulting from
its actions have had. First, to the extent that bulls like Parekh suffered
losses, they needed to settle their dues with additional resources.
In Parekh's case the dues where ostensibly the wherewithal needed
to ensure that Madhavpura Mercantile Cooperative Bank (MCCB) could honour
the pay-orders it had issued to him without any downpayment either in
the form of cash or deposit collateral. In other cases, brokers had
expected to settle dues either through sales of shares they held or
borrowing against those shares. Settlement requires a pay-in
by those who accept deliveries of scrips that they have agreed to buy,
and a pay-out to those who have submitted the shares for delivery as
agreed. Delayed settlement possibilities, permissible under the modified
carry-forward scheme (MCFS) operating in India's stock markets
can lead to settlement problems because they encourage excessively high
speculative positions on the part of brokers expecting to be able to
realize the required funds when settlement day arrives. But, in many
cases the collapse in the interim of the value of the shares they hold
make the settlement impossible to ensure, leading to payments problems,
which were particularly acute in the Calcutta Stock Exchange, located
faraway from the centre of Parekh's activities.
Second, the effects of the speculative collapse soon
spread to the banking system. To start with, banks like MCCB which had
accommodated the loser and others that had invested in MCCB or had made
large deposits with it for services such as clearing services, which
includes a number of other cooperative banks in Gujarat, found themselves
saddled with worthless real or intangible assets, resulting in weakness
of a kind that triggered a run on these banks. Further, even regular
commercial banks which had lent against shares as collateral found that
the value of that collateral had fallen substantially relative to the
sums lent, forcing them to demand an increase in collateral to protect
loans which were made in many cases to brokers who had suffered losses
in the wake of the bear hammering. The full effects of the scam on the
banks, and the distribution of loss provisions amongst them would be
revealed only after some time. What needs to be noted is that once the
process of divesting public equity in banks proceeds further this can
have larger implications. Even now, the shares of a number of public
sector banks that have diluted their equity are ruling below par. If
the same occurs in the wake of large scale dilution, they would be ideal
candidates for take-over as part of process of financial consolidation
that would put control of large volumes of household savings in a few
hands.
Third, small investors holding safe securities either
directly or indirectly through agencies like mutual funds find the value
of their investments eroded for reasons that are neither legally valid
or within their control or even ken. This would legitimately undermine
their faith in stock investments. But this occurs precisely at a time
when a liberalization-driven effort to cut interest rates on long term
deposits and small savings schemes is forcing them to participate in
the markets.
Finally, this loss of faith in stock markets is only
being aggravated by the fact that the viability of these markets is
being challenged by the consequences of speculative losses. Faced with
settlement problems, and unable to indefinitely postpone settlement,
the Calcutta Stock Exchange has found even its Settlement Guarantee
Fund (SGF) inadequate to cover the short fall. The management of the
exchange has managed to save face only by getting some 'friendly'
financial institutions to pick up large volumes of stock at a discount
to provide brokers the funds needed to meet their settlement obligations.
All of this reveals the fragility of the financial
system that is being provided greater room for maneuverability by the
financial liberalization that seeks to attract foreign investors into
India's shallow markets. What is more, by increasing maneuverability
and by allowing banks to indirectly support trading activity, and by
privileging stock market buoyancy as an indicator of economic success,
liberalization is increasing speculative activity and aggravating the
fragility of the system. In the effort to shift the focus away from
the folly of liberalizing markets so prone to speculation, the government
is now pointing its fingers at the inadequacies of the regulatory authority.
What is missed is that the ethos of liberalization which gives financial
markets pride of place in assessments of the success of economic policy
forces the regulatory authority to be flexible and even formulate rules
providing room for maneuver to private operators in order to keep markets
buoyant even when the real economy slows. The point to note is that
the only players who need these markets are the speculators, a few large corporates and, of course, the FIIs who in the wake of the collapse
are busy picking up shares at huge discounts.