There has not been a more comprehensive compilation
of information about where we are in basic socio-economic development
than the National Human Development Report (NHDR) 2001. The Planning
Commission's report, the first official nationwide assessment of human
development, does not contain new information, it only puts together
socio-economic data from a variety of Government sources. Some of its
statistics are even dated, extending no further than the early 1990s.
But unlike the Government of India's annual Economic Survey or the many
publications of the Reserve Bank, which mainly cover the remote world
of fiscal deficits, foreign exchange reserves and money supply, what
we have in the NHDR is a series of snapshots of changes over the past
two decades in the bread and butter world of final outcomes: nutrition,
shelter, availability of electricity, access to sanitation, schooling,
life expectancy, disabilities, the position of children etc.
Even if we needed any reminding, the picture of progress at the State
level, between men and women, between rural and urban India, and, of
the Dalits and Adivasis, is not a very satisfying one. It is not, however,
entirely a bleak world. We find in the NHDR, for instance, that in the
1990s there was a considerable rise in basic literacy rates, which rose
from 44 per cent (1981) to 65 per cent (2001). The absolute number of
illiterates declined for the first time between 1991 and 2001. And,
the proportion of households with access to electricity increased from
26 per cent in 1981 to 42 per cent in 1991 and 60 in 1998-99. But gross
failures in some of the most basic areas of human development overwhelm
everything else. The NHDR reminds us that as food stocks began climbing
to extraordinary levels in the late 1990s, over half of India's children
under five were either moderately or severely malnourished, 30 per cent
of new-borns were significantly underweight and 60 per cent of women
were anaemic. And, in the early 1990s, only 10 per cent of Dalit households
had the luxury of a toilet in their homes. These statistics are not
perfect, but the naked eye tells much the same story.
Ultimately, this first, even if belated, Government report on human
development is important for two reasons. First, an exercise by the
Government to prepare a human development index (HDI) for the country
is as close an official recognition as is possible of the human development
approach to guide policy as well as measure outcomes. (Like the UNDP
reports, the NHDR has also constructed the human poverty index - a measure
of deprivation - and the gender equality index.) Second, the estimation
of HDIs for the States provides a richer picture than the summary national
index since there are such striking regional variations in almost every
measure of socio-economic development.
The components of the Planning Commission's estimate of HDI in India
are much the same as that of the UNDP's index - measures of economic
attainment, health and education. The indicators chosen to construct
the HDI are, however, slightly different, to take into account the specifics
of the Indian situation and the availability of information. The most
important difference is that where the UNDP's measure of economic attainment
is the per capita gross domestic product, the NHDR chooses per capita
consumption expenditure adjusted for inequality. The NHDR describes
the rise between 1981 and 2001 of the human development status of India
as a significant improvement. The national HDI did increase from 0.302
(1981) to 0.381 (1991) and then to 0.472 (2001). But while an improvement
has taken place over 20 years, it is worth keeping in mind that in theory
the HDI can rise to a perfect 1.0. (Norway with an HDI of 0.94 leads
the UNDP's most recent ranking of countries.) So in spite of the increase
in HDI since 1981, we are not even half way there.Likewise, while there
has been a narrowing of the rural-urban divide and the gender inequities,
the improvements have been small.
The NHDR is most informative in its discussion of State-level performance,
though the lack of up to date information does leave some gaps. First,
in the 32 States and Union Territories for which statistics are available
for 1981 and 1991, the regions with the highest HDIs are either the
Union Territories or small States in the Northeast. In 1991, the only
two major States in the first 12 were Kerala and Punjab. What is open
to interpretation is if this better performance of the smaller entities
is because of large amounts of Central assistance to Chandigarh, Delhi,
Mizoram, Manipur etc, which provides for better health and education
services and also props up per capita consumption expenditure. Second,
a longer term comparison (between 1981 and 2001) is possible only for
15 major States, though here as well the estimates of HDI should be
seen as provisional. Kerala, with its past emphasis on education and
health, naturally led in 1981 and 2001 as well. It should, however,
also be noted that while per capita GDP in Kerala is less than average,
the remittances from Keralites in West Asia keep per capita consumption
at higher than average. So this too contributes to a high HDI for the
State. Third, the changes in some States are revealing. The substantial
improvement in the position of Tamil Nadu between 1981 and 1991, maintained
in 2001, is not on account of a growth in consumption but perhaps because
of the improvement in literacy rates.
Likewise, the less than satisfactory HDI rank of Andhra Pradesh and
West Bengal - two States where for very different reasons a better performance
should have been expected - is also perhaps the result of their mediocre
results in health and education. Fourth, the NHDR observes that there
is a broad correspondence between income and HDI levels among the better-off
and poor States. This correspondence breaks down in the middle-income
States, which is revealed in the varying achievements of Andhra Pradesh,
Tamil Nadu, West Bengal and even Karnataka. The lack-lustre achievement
in human development of some of the Southern states in the 1990s is
a question mark over the so-called superior performance of the South
in the previous decade. Fifth and last, the most worrying observation
in the NHDR is that while it sees economic growth having accelerated
in the 1990s by a full percentage point this led to less human development
in that decade. A tentative explanation is that the States at the bottom
(Bihar and Assam) are achieving only limited progress while those at
the top (Kerala and Punjab) are also finding it difficult to further
improve their human development. This then is a reiteration of two familiar
lessons about the links between economic growth and human development.
A higher rate of economic growth does not necessarily mean more rapid
improvements in human development, but at low levels of income you cannot
improve human development without growth (Bihar) and beyond a point
human development cannot be raised without faster growth (Kerala).