Strange
things happen in the world. Imagine a grouping of countries spread
across the globe, which gets formed only for the simple reason that
an analyst for an investment bank decides that these countries have
some things in common, including future potential for growth, and
then creates an acronym of their names! Bizarre but true.
The
original categorization by Jim O'Neill of Goldman Sachs contained
only Brazil, Russia, India and China – subsequently South Africa
was added to the group. And while the origin of the grouping may
be odd, and the countries are indeed remarkably diverse, there are
some commonalities that are important. And in any case, these countries
have since shown significant appetite for meeting periodically,
working together, finding some synergies and new ways of co-operation.
It is interesting to note that trade between BRICS countries soared
after they became recognized as a combination, although of course
this is a period when trade between developing and emerging markets
in general has grown much faster than aggregate world trade.
At the most recent BRICS Summit held in New Delhi, the meeting of
the Financial Forum definitely signaled some steps forward, such
as an agreement to encourage trade between members denominated in
bilateral currencies. The heads of development banks of the five
countries also spoke of working together to push for a different
global financial architecture, as well as cooperation in areas such
as developing ''green'' economies.
In fact there is great potential in these five countries not just
combining to address global issues, but perhaps even more significantly,
in learning from one another. In the discussions at the Financial
Forum it became evident how much India has to learn from Brazil
and China in the matter of development banking. From the early 1990s,
India has set about destroying the potential of its own development
banks, in both agriculture and industry – but there is still scope
for their renewal and rejuvenation. And the example of Brazil, and
in particular BNDES, in entering areas and promoting activities
that would not occur purely through the incentives determined by
the market, could provide some guidance about how this can occur
even in a very open and largely market-driven economy.
Similarly, there are areas in which other BRICS countries could
learn from India, while the description of the work of the South
African Development Bank illuminated the strategy of creating financial
structures and mechanisms to promote the ''green economy'' through
environmentally desirable activities and technologies. There are
also immense possibilities for technology sharing and even co-ordinating
technology development, in a world where intellectual property rights
still largely controlled by Northern multinational companies have
emerged as a major constraint on development.
But it is not only comparing experiences of the recent past and
learning from each other's approaches that may be important. Despite
their many differences, the BRICS countries do face some common
challenges, and the very urgency of these challenges points to the
benefits of co-operation to develop creating new strategies. At
least four such challenges deserve mention, as do some possibilities
of combined action to confront them.
The first is the fact of the continuing global crisis and the near
certainty that the Northern economies (the US and Europe in particular)
are unlikely to provide much positive stimulus to the global economy.
For all the BRICS, these countries still dominate as export destinations
and the domino effect of declining Northern markets must be accepted.
So clearly, there is need to diversify exports, a process that has
already started but still needs to go a long way. Of course bilateral
currency trade would encourage more trading activity between the
BRICS, and this is desirable.
But the current state of the global economy suggests the need for
greater ambition. In particular, the time is clearly ripe for some
sort of ''Marshall Plan'' for the developing world, and the BRICS
countries (particularly China and Russia) are uniquely positioned
to take this process forward. This would involve developing mechanisms
to finance imports by countries with low incomes and low levels
of development, simultaneously delivering markets to other developing
countries and more development potential to the recipient countries.
The other challenges are more internal, but surprisingly common
across the BRICS. The recent growth process has been substantially
associated with increasing income and asset inequality (other than
in Brazil, which once again provides some lessons for the others,
but where Gini coefficients still remain among the highest in the
world). It is now more evident that such inequality is socially
and economically dysfunctional, and also that it gives rise to political
tensions that can be even more damaging. So there must be measure
to address this.
Inadequate productive employment generation has been a central feature
of the past growth process, and is clearly linked with the growing
inequality. So financial policies within BRICS countries must be
concerned with this, and in particular with how to use finance to
promote more opportunities for decent work. In this context, the
development banks themselves need to be not just strengthened but
also reformed, so as expand their ambit to be more explicitly concerned
with micro and small enterprises, which have been hitherto relatively
neglected in credit allocation. Indeed, the focus could be not just
on credit per se, but strategies to ensure technology development
in micro enterprises as well as better access to markets. For example,
it is possible to think of dedicated export credit lines of Eximbanks
devoted to the products of micro and small enterprises.
Another major aspect of inequality has been the inequality in access
to basic social services and utilities. The strategies of privatisation
and reduced public spending in such areas in all the BRICS countries
have not only reduced access for the poor but also created tremendous
inequalities. It is increasingly necessary for innovative financial
strategies to promote more universal provision of necessary services
and utilities. Such credit cannot focus only on ''public private
partnerships'' but must increasingly be oriented towards municipalities
and locally elected bodies who are often directly responsible for
such provision but tend to be cash starved and denied finance.
Finally, recent growth in all the BRICS countries has been associated
with a construction and real estate boom, and it is interesting
to note that this boom is also in the process of winding down in
all five countries. This creates all sorts of difficulties, both
in terms of the employment losses as well as the health of the financial
sector, and it is particularly galling given the continued shortage
of adequate mass housing. All of these countries will need effective
strategies to deal with this challenge, even while they continue
to promote affordable and better quality mass housing, and so surely
there are opportunities here for creative policy thinking that can
be shared.
Much of recent South-South interaction (including amongst BRICS)
has been corporate-led, which has determined the focus on trade
and investment and the encouragement of particular patterns of trade
and investment. To the extent that companies everywhere have similar
interests (the pursuit of their own profits) it is not surprising
that older North-South patterns are replicated. But surely the focus
should be to democratise the interaction itself, to work out the
ways in which the patterns of trade and investment flows can be
altered to emphasise the creation of decent employment.
Ultimately, sustainable economic diversification to higher value
added and ecologically viable activities remains the key to growth
and development not just in the BRICS countries but in other developing
countries as well. This period of global flux actually provides
a valuable opportunity to encourage and develop new ways of taking
such strategies forward through co-operation.