The
United States has an archaic piece of legislation, passed in 1917,
which puts a ceiling on the magnitude of the debt of its federal
government in absolute dollar terms. (Since the various State governments
in the U.S. are not allowed to run fiscal deficits and hence incur
debt, the federal debt is synonymous with government debt). Fixing
a debt ceiling in absolute dollar terms is extraordinarily silly
for two obvious reasons: first, as the federal government incurs
fresh fiscal deficits every year which add to its debt, this ceiling
fixed in absolute terms is naturally bound to get exceeded. Secondly,
as prices and output rise, the Federal government's revenue and
expenditure also rise, and so does its fiscal deficit in absolute
terms. Any absolute debt ceiling therefore must get exceeded for
this reason as well. The debt ceiling in short needs to be revised
upwards every so often. Not surprisingly there have been umpteen
such revisions, though, strangely, nobody has pushed for either
repealing this archaic piece of legislation or even amending it
to convert the ceiling to a percentage of the GDP. (In Europe and
in India, the size of the fiscal deficit, which is a flow as distinct
from debt which is a stock, is fixed as a percentage of the GDP).
The previous revision in the debt ceiling was on February 12, 2010,
which fixed it at $14.3 trillion. This ceiling, it was known in
advance, would have to be revised upwards again, but it was expected
to be a routine affair to which nobody paid much attention. Since
the government's budget had already been approved by the legislature,
which had given sanction to the various items of federal expenditure,
a revision of the debt ceiling to accommodate the expenditures already
sanctioned was expected to occur in the normal course. But it became
a crisis in the US because the Republicans, who of late have moved
further Right, and without whose consent the revision of any debt
ceiling could not be effected, began demanding their pound of flesh,
in the form of cuts in federal expenditure, especially on social
security and on programmes of benefit to the poor such as Medicare.
The class aspect of this insistence should not be missed. The previous
Republican administration under George Bush had brought about massive
tax cuts for the rich, sharply accentuating the post-tax income
inequalities in the US. In an effort to appease the Republicans,
Obama in December 2010 had agreed to continue with those tax cuts,
apparently in the mistaken belief that, since one favour begets
another, the Republicans would in turn do him the favour of raising
the debt ceiling, a normally routine affair as we have seen, without
much ado. The Republicans however insisted upon eating their cake
and having it too. Having got Obama to continue with the Bush-era
tax cuts, they made it a condition that they would agree to an increase
in the debt ceiling only if severe cuts were effected in a range
of items of federal expenditure which were of benefit to the poor.
And Obama has had to bow before them. Under the shadow of a silly
piece of legislation passed in 1917, a further grotesquely regressive
shift in income distribution has been effected by the far Right
in the US which currently dominates the Republican Party. In the
process the strength of the far Right in American politics has increased
greatly: it is now confident that it can push a pusillanimous Obama
in the direction it wants.
Since in the absence of an increase in the debt ceiling, the US
government would have defaulted on its payments, which is a matter
great embarrassment for any government, many in the US are happy
that a solution has been found to such a crisis through mutual agreement,
no matter what the terms of the agreement between Obama and the
Republicans might be. But this is a naïve position which ignores
the great damage that this compromise has done to the US society
(in the form of a sharp regression in income distribution), to the
US polity (in the form of a remarkable shift to the Right) and to
the US and world economy (in the form of an accentuation of the
world recession, on which more later).
Some would argue that Obama had no choice in the matter, that to
avert the crisis which would have ensued if the US government had
defaulted on its payments, he had to bow to the Republicans. But
this is erroneous. Quite apart from the fact that he had been pusillanimous
all along, especially in continuing with the Bush-era tax-cuts,
he turned out to be pusillanimous even when it came to the crunch.
He did have an obvious way out which was suggested by many, but
he did not follow it. The way out was as follows.
While government bonds are counted as government debt, money issued
by the government is not. The Federal Reserve holds $1.7 trillion
of government bonds at the moment, which it has been buying in its
effort to lower long term interest rates (for stimulating a recovery).
This sum is counted as government debt and hence figures in all
calculations about whether government debt is within the statutory
ceiling. If the government merely substitutes money printed by it
for government bonds in the Federal Reserve Board's portfolio, then
its debt falls well within the ceiling (since the estimated excess
over the ceiling is $1.5 trillion which is less than the $1.7 trillion
of government bonds with the Fed).
Government-printed money in the US is not a new idea: Abraham Lincoln
had printed notes called ''Greenbacks'' (the term is still used
in common parlance to refer to the dollar), precisely in a similar
situation when the Federal government had got into a debt crisis
because of financing Civil War expenditure. True, substituting government
notes for government bonds (it does not matter to the Fed because
interest rates on government bonds are near-zero, and much of the
Fed's interest earnings come to the government treasury anyway),
appears to be a phoney solution; but since the debt-ceiling problem
is a phoney problem anyway, a phoney solution is all that it requires,
and this solution is quite enough to counter the arm-twisting by
the Republicans.
The reason Obama did not do it is structural; it is not because
of some personal failure on his part, as Liberal writers have been
suggesting. Obama's apparent pusillanimity in other words is not
a character trait but a consequence of his bowing to the pressures
of finance capital. A big debate has been on for some time in the
US about the size of the fiscal deficit. While many progressive
economists have been rightly emphasizing that in the midst of a
recession a large fiscal deficit is necessary for stimulating the
economy, and that it cannot possibly do any harm, not even on the
inflation front (since the inflation in the US, not alarmingly high
in any case, is not caused by excess demand), the financial interests
and the media controlled by them have been systematically wanting
a cut in the fiscal deficit. This is hardly surprising: finance
capital is always opposed to any form of State activism except that
which promotes its own interests. It propagates not just the view
that what is good for finance is good for the economy, but an even
stronger version of it: only what is good for finance is good for
the economy. For it to admit that the interests of the economy can
be served by government action that is not aimed at promoting its
own interests, is to undermine its own raison d'etre. The phoney
problem of the debt ceiling has been used to effect a real cut in
the fiscal deficit. And that too without affecting the interests
of the rich, the reversal of whose tax-cuts had already been carefully
removed from the agenda earlier.
A fiscal deficit can be curtailed either through garnering larger
tax revenue or through effecting expenditure cuts. How it is curtailed,
and upon whom the impact of tax increases and expenditure cuts falls,
are important issues affecting the class distribution of income.
Finance capital not only wants a cut in the fiscal deficit, but
a cut effected correctly in class terms (from its point of view).
Obama has done both to its satisfaction. No doubt he was goaded
by the Right, but he could not stand up to finance capital, because
his own election was funded largely by that bastion of finance capital,
Wall Street. Underlying what Liberal writers, quite rightly, see
as a shift to the Right in US politics, is the increase in the power
of finance capital.
Ironically, a good deal of the increase in government debt in the
US has been caused by the government's effort to bail out banks
from the financial crisis they had collectively brought upon themselves,
and also by the Bush tax-cuts for the rich, which themselves not
particularly anti-recessionary, could not be reversed even as the
government had to work out a stimulus package against recession.
But this very increase in government debt imposed by the rich and
the financial interests has been used by the same interests to bring
about cuts in welfare expenditures for the poor!
The fact that this would worsen the recession in the US, and hence
in the world capitalist economy as a whole, has been rightly emphasized
by many writers. Countering a recession requires increased spending.
Since the US cannot suddenly expand its net exports (and if it did,
then some other countries' recession would be accentuated since
it would have to be based on a ''beggar-my-neighbour'' policy),
its domestic expenditure has to increase. Since neither private
consumption expenditure nor private investment are showing any signs
of a recovery (they would recover once the economy begins to recover),
the increased spending will have to come from the government, and,
in the absence of taxes upon the rich, will have to be financed
by a fiscal deficit (taxes on the poor nullify the expansionary
effects of government spending). Curtailing the fiscal deficit,
and that too via cuts in expenditures for the poor, will therefore
aggravate the recession in the US, and hence the world economy.
It may be asked: why is finance capital insisting upon such a course
which is ultimately dangerous for the system as a whole, since it
confronts the system with both greater popular antagonism and a
worse crisis? The reason is because capitalism is not a planned
but a spontaneous system. This spontaneity is what makes it doomed.
Paraphrasing Lenin we can say that if capitalism could do all those
things which were reasonable and humane, then it would not be capitalism.