Matters came to a head in the third week of
January, when tens of thousands of protesters marched into the capital
Quito. They were mainly indigenous people to start with, but were rapidly
joined by local workers and students. Ecuador's indigenous movement
has been a formidable social force for over a decade, but mainly expressed
itself in sudden spurts of street-based activity. Beginning with the
1996 elections, the indigenous population had abandoned its traditional
policy of shunning the official political system and had participated
more actively, thus establishing itself as a significant political force.
The current movement also has a charismatic leader - Antonio Vargas
- who has been emphasising the imperative need not only for structural
redistributive reform but also to reorient macroeconomic policies in
favour of the citizenry at large.
The public protests brought Quito to a standstill
for several days, and finally culminated on Friday, January 21, the
day the bill for dollarisation was to be introduced in Congress. Instead,
what happened was a takeover of the empty Congress building and the
Supreme Court building by several thousand protesters. This was possible
also because of an effective revolt in the army, as thousands of soldiers
and hundreds of junior officers - up to the rank of Colonel - joined
the protesters, in a unique combination of forces. For several hours
the protesters declared a "people's parliament", and a new "government
of national salvation" was placed in power by this spontaneous uprising.
This was headed by a troika composed of the representative of the indigenous
people's movement, Antonio Vargas, a military leader, Colonel Gutierrez,
and a retired Supreme Court Judge highly respected among the people.
It publicly resolved to reverse the economic policies and chart a new
course based on the ordinary people's needs, leading to w ild celebrations
in the streets.
Matters moved swiftly after that, as the international
community, and especially the U.S., stepped in to exercise its usual
damage limitation and finally effective control. First, the head of
the armed forces in Ecuador, General Mendoza, replaced Colonel Gutierrez
in the ruling junta. Within the space of five hours, and after only
a few calls from Washington D.C., General Mendoza also disbanded the
new government and declared that the new President would be elected
by Congress. According to local radio reports, U.S. officials had threatened
to withdraw aid and to oppose a long-awaited IMF loan, but the General
himself said his decision was made to avoid a split in the military
and "a futile bloodbath". Congress then elected the earlier Vice-President,
Gustavo Noboa, to head the country. The people's movements were suddenly
in disarray, and despite the feeling of betrayal, most of the outside
protesters left the capital.
President Noboa, a former university Professor
with little political experience, rapidly showed his own inclination.
He pledged to press ahead with his deposed predecessor's plan to dollarise
the currency and privatise state assets in the face of continued opposition
from trade unions and indigenous organisations. Noboa's first interview
was, perhaps predictably, with a foreign news agency, Reuters, in which
he announced that "I am strict when it comes to complying with one's
duties... Ecuador has to modernise, privatise. But to say that is repetitive.
Now we have to really do it... I will use an iron hand when necessary"
to push forward with aggressive policies of privatisation and further
expenditure control and to crush opposition to these measures. The army
officers and soldiers who participated in what is now being termed as
the "revolt" are to be tried, and action may well be taken against some
of the other protesters as well.
The attempt of the government is now to show
that it is business (or the lack of it) as usual, and that the focus
of economic policy will continue to be that of placating and pleasing
the international community, rather than addressing the urgent needs
of the local population. Financial markets reacted with predictable
relief at this proof that the new President was, after all, one of the
boys, and could be trusted not to divert from those policies which are
most favourable to it. And the Western media too have been welcoming
this restoration of elected democracy, with a Western-trained academic
to lead it. But the people's movements remain unconvinced. Vargas announced
(from hiding) that the indigenous groups have given the new government
a grace period of six months, to show whether the leaders are willing
to take measures to improve the lot of the poor. Otherwise, they threaten
not just another agitation but a more comprehensive struggle, which
could engulf the small Andean country.
All this means that the future is still highly
uncertain for Ecuador. But while this episode does raise questions about
the nature of true democracy and the power of the people's voice, it
also points to the sheer diffic ulty of popular movements pressing for
social and economic change in the U.S.' backyard. Much may have to change,
not only in Ecuador but also in its apparently all-powerful northern
neighbour, before the people's movements can be successful in moving
towards the granting of basic economic rights to the citizens.