UPA
II, the argument goes, is afflicted by paralysis in policy making,
especially on matters relating to the economy. Not without reason.
There are few new initiatives that are being implemented with vigour,
and many that began during UPA I, including the rural employment
guarantee scheme, languish under the current regime.
But all those who identify the government as being overcome by paralysis
are not referring to the same policies. ''Paralysis'' of the kind
that preoccupies the financial media, corporate India and international
investors, refers to the failure of the government to deliver fully
on its explicitly or implicitly stated commitment to so-called ''economic
reform''. When in Washington recently to attend the spring meetings
of the World Bank and the IMF, the Finance Minister and his Chief
Economic Adviser, realised that the sources of such criticism were
not just domestic. Moreover, the term economic reform means different
things to different people: deregulation of various kinds, reduced
taxation or more tax concessions, privatisation, public expenditure
cuts, measures to curtail subsidies and reduce the fiscal deficit,
a lax monetary regime with low interest rates, dilution of labour
laws, and many combinations of these.
The fact remains that successive governments since the early 1990s
have gone a significant way down this path of liberalisation, privatisation
and so-called reform of the fiscal and monetary regime. But there
seems to be no end to the demands for further liberalisation. Each
round is followed by a campaign for a new generation of reforms,
so much so that now it is impossible for advocates to put a number
on the next round. Further, since the interests of foreign investors
in manufacturing, of different components of the domestic corporate
sector, and of foreign and Indian finance capital differ, the specific
set of reform policies being emphasised by each sectional interest
also differs.
However, faced with criticism from these economically powerful circles,
the government has turned defensive. It sometimes accepts that the
slow pace of reforms under UPA II is because of the constraints
set by coalition politics or by the intransigence of the opposition.
Many accepted that argument when the Left was supporting the government
under UPA I, but it is less credible now. Sometimes government officials
attribute the slow pace of liberalising reform to the indecision
that results from repeated allegations of corruption. That is seen
as constraining other officers from taking responsibility for government
spending. And at yet other times, just the fact that some set of
elections is imminent (which is always true) is cited as reason
for tardy implementation of the so-called ‘consensus' over reform.
Even the Prime Minister has at times used such excuses to explain
the inability to implement reforms. But, since the consensus among
the elite that constitutes the state-capital nexus is that these
reforms are good, officials like the Chief Economic Adviser who
reportedly advanced such arguments, sometimes come under attack
and are forced to retract.
The problem with this version of the policy paralysis argument is
that it presumes that the neoliberal version of reform is right
and that democracy (in the form of elections, coalition governments,
opposition and dissent) is not all good since it constrains or slows
such reform. What is missed here is the evidence that reform in
India has been accompanied by significant worsening of income inequality,
on the one hand, and a fall in the rate at which welfare improvements
for the poorest are realised, on the other. Whether it be poverty
incidence, malnutrition and hunger, reasonably stable and remunerative
employment or a host of other indices of deprivation, the pace of
progress has slowed after liberalisation. This association between
reform and inadequate advance on the human development front has
challenged the legitimacy of the liberalisation process. In the
event sections of the opposition, including the BJP, which advocate
similar policies when in power, are constrained to oppose the government
in some form when new measures of liberalisation are being pushed.
The real problem is that neoliberal reform has no legitimacy in
the perception of the majority of Indians.
It is not surprising therefore that it is not just neoliberal reform
but also the economic programmes of the parties that push such reform
that have lost their legitimacy. They may be all for the poor on
paper, but the evidence on the ground is too stark now for the electorate
to ignore. That loss of legitimacy is compounded by the evidence
that the growing state-capital nexus has resulted in a huge transfers
of surpluses in favour of capital, facilitated by associated payments
to a section of the political and bureaucratic elite. Neoliberal
reform has served as a mechanism for a drastic, engineered redistribution
of income and wealth in favour of the rich. Hence, with two decades
of reform behind us, the majority in India is no longer persuaded
that it can make much of a difference to their lives. If, despite
this, the push for reform persists, it is because a section of the
vocal middle class that has benefitted from liberalisation has joined
the elite's clamour in its support, because electoral politics is
increasingly influenced by money power, and because the political
parties and movements that oppose such reform are yet to gather
adequate voter support.
But democracy being democracy does impose some constraints on parties
and their progammes. There has to be a semblance of concern for
the majority, even if action points to neglect. It is for this reason
that the UPA has had to declare its commitment to and make a feeble
attempt to implement programmes such as the NREGS and food security.
They are even showcased as flagship programmes, though some of the
UPA's leaders had initially dismissed such initiatives as populist
and a waste of good money. But the support for such programmes has
been more in rhetoric than in practice, with implementation neglected
or consciously reined in. Nothing illustrates this than the fact
that real allocations of resources for the NREGS have stagnated
or declined in the years when it was reportedly being geographically
expanded and strengthened.
This divergence between rhetoric and practice is of course no new
disease. In terms of outcomes, there has been a longer-term paralysis
of policy making in certain areas that has characterised governments
during the whole of the post-Independence period. As a result, India
ranks high in the hunger index; malnutrition and stunting are overwhelming
despite their being considered a national shame even by the Prime
Minister; and, six and a half decades after Independence we have
not been able to put all children in the relevant age group into
school. Official assessments harp on the slow progress with respect
to most human development indicators, rather in the persisting shortfall
after so many decades of development.
It is on top of this long run failure that the setback in achievement
during the reform years has occurred. Rather than recognise this
long-term failure in addressing deprivation by allocating additional
resources and improving delivery to accelerate advance on the human
development front, we are observing a slowing of progress in this
area. What is disconcerting is that it was in periods when GDP growth
had accelerated relative to the first three decades after Independence,
as in the 1990s, and even boomed, as during 2003-04 to 2007-08,
that success in overcoming deprivation has flagged. One obvious
reason is that the government has not been able to appropriate the
required resources to compensate for the inequalising effects of
growth, even though profit shares in organised industry and services
and incomes of the rich were rising. Clearly a combination of fiscal
conservatism, a rising tendency to favour capital in the name of
private sector-led growth and an ideological inclination against
state action in support of the poor was responsible for this setback.
There are many elements reflecting that ideological inclination:
control over economic policy in the hands of those who are neither
capable of nor are willing to fight and win popular support in elections;
celebration of a neoliberal economic policy package as technocratically
correct, despite its hugely adverse distributional implications;
justification of engineered shifts in the distribution of income
in favour of the corporate sector, finance and the rich in the name
of incentivising private savings and investment; and the refusal
to treat woefully inadequate progress in the battle against deprivation
as a failure while arguing that the inability to push neoliberal
reform is a sign of malfunction.
This then is the true paralysis that characterises the UPA. It is
a paralysis that is visible in governments across the world in the
age of finance, including in Europe. In some of them austerity is
being implemented by unelected governments, and in all of them ordinary
citizens pay the price for a crisis engineered by finance and the
rich. But the impact of such paralysis in a country with the scale
of deprivation that India reflects is a shame. But that is not the
paralysis that most commentators are pointing to today and which
was being referred to in Washington. Rather the paralysis they speak
of is the inability of the government to push further ahead with
policies that would redistribute incomes from the poor to the rich.
What they implicitly lament is the fact that India's democracy still
retains some of its early representativeness and vibrancy. The challenge
then is not to the Indian state, but to democracy itself.
* This article was
originally published in the Frontline Volume 29, Issue-09 (May 05-18,
2012).