The second tendency
has been to argue that in the current context in Kerala the voting
behaviour of the people is not influenced by efforts at innovative State
intervention or improved economic well-being. There could be two kinds
of reasons advanced as to why such a dissociation of politics from
economics could occur, leaving the former to be driven and determined by
a logic of its own. It could be held that backward social mores
including caste and community influences could be so strong as to result
in the formation of vote banks that are not easily broken by economic
developments. However, this position does not explain why the results
in the 1995 elections were so heavily in favour of the LDF whereas those
in 2000 were not, since no major shift in caste and community influences
seem to have occurred during those years. Nor does it tally with the
fact that literacy and educational achievement in Kerala are so high,
resulting in a far greater degree of political and social awareness than
elsewhere that serves as a counterweight to pure caste and communal
mobilisation. The restriction of the BJP to a few wins in selected
pockets in the State, despite large expenditures and an unusually large
number of seats contested, is one among many indicators corroborating
that judgement.
A more persuasive
explanation for any perceived dissociation between economics and
politics could be the dominance for historical reasons of a middle
class. Combined with the enriching influence of remittances from abroad
accruing to a large number of households, this structure of the
population could make local level efforts targeted at the poor less of
an influence on the voting behaviour of a substantial section of the
population. Here again, the argument is weakened by the fact that the
People's Planning Campaign has, according to many commentators, drawn
substantial sections of the middle classes into its fold as experts,
trainers and volunteers. The enthusiasm generated by the campaign has
touched not just its most obvious beneficiaries, but even the
better-endowed sections of the community.
All of this suggests
that any attempt to understand the LDF's shortfall in performance
relative to expectations or its inability to translate the goodwill
generated by the People's Planning experiment into votes at the polls
should focus on factors that may have neutralised the political
advantages yielded by the People's Planning Campaign. There are, no
doubt, many state-level political and social developments that could
have influenced voter behaviour. One such influence, for example, could
have been the controversy, legal tangle and the confusion created by the
transition to the plus-two system in the educational sphere. While the
well-meaning search for correspondence with the national pattern may
have influenced the decision, the controversies surrounding its
implementation and the fact that it forced many entrants into the
plus-two stage to choose less well-endowed and less prestigious
institutions could not but have been a source of resentment. And given
the importance attached to education in a highly literate state like
Kerala, the effect of this development may have been negative for the
LDF which rules the state. Many other such state-level decisions or
developments could have influenced the result and are likely to be
brought up in the ongoing post-mortem.
But this may not
provide a full explanation given the important role of local issues and
perceptions in what were local elections. Post-election analyses can
only speculate as to what those local factors were and how their effects
were mediated. Needless to say, the People's Campaign was not a purely
LDF affair, even if the decentralised planning experiment was launched
by the LDF government in the state. It had drawn into its fold
individuals of all persuasions and political affiliation, who came
together on a common developmental agenda. In fact, many individuals who
contributed to the campaign's success in particular localities owed
allegiance to parties belonging to the UDF. It is quite possible that
they reaped the benefits of that success, and rightly so. This would
only speak for the fairness and transparency of the campaign.
To boot, the LDF's
electoral strategy may have undermined its ability to encash in similar
fashion the success of the campaign, despite the fact that a majority of
elected local representatives involved in implementing the campaign owed
allegiance to it. The People's Planning Campaign we must recognise has
generated a situation where the actual power and prestige of the local
institutions has increased tremendously. This has rendered positions in
local bodies more important from the point of view of both political
parties and individuals. As a result, independent of the success of
incumbent representatives in carrying forward the campaign, they have it
appears been replaced by almost all parties by candidates chosen by the
party machinery. The extent to which this has happened is not clear.
But, for example, when questioned in a television debate about the
substitution of incumbent representatives by new candidates by the LDF,
Thomas Isaac, one of the architects of the campaign, admitted that only
about a fifth of the incumbents had been given an opportunity to run for
a second term in these elections. Even incumbents in some of the highly
successful "model panchayats" had been substituted by new faces. This
could have influenced voters who were looking to the abilities of the
contestants as individuals to carry forward the campaign, rather than to
whether they were affiliated to the front that instituted the campaign
in the first instance. Interestingly, according to reports, around 85
per cent of incumbent LDF representatives who contested again in these
elections have been returned. This suggests that the choice of
candidates could have had an important role to play in explaining the
electoral outcome.
All such evidence and
arguments would no doubt be closely examined in the search for
explanations for the surprising result yielded by the elections. They
have been raised here not as clinching arguments but only to lend
support to the view that the electoral outcome in Kerala should not be
seen either as public apathy towards or indictment of a path-breaking
experiment. Nor should it be seen as indicating that people-centred
economic policies and strategies have little political relevance. To do
so would be to denude democratic politics of all substance and to
subvert the search for development alternatives for the new millennium.