In
addition, of course, such schemes have the advantage of appearing to
be risk-free besides offering the added incentive of tax benefit up
to a certain limit. For the household sector, this has increasingly
become an attractive alternative to bank deposits. For this reason,
banks are forced to maintain high deposit rates and this is why their
lending rates remain high despite the financial liberalisation measures.
For
this to be accepted, it must be shown that small savings with the government
have replaced bank deposits, at least at the margin, in total household
savings. But there is no such tendency of bank deposits as a share the
total financial assets of households to fall over the 1990s. In fact,
on average the share of bank deposits has been substantially higher
in the last three years of the decade (at more than 38 per cent) than
in the first three years of the decade (at only 32 per cent).
It is
true that the share of small savings has increased slightly (from 32
to 34 per cent), but much less than the share of bank deposits. And
it turns out that the increase in both has been at the expense of the
share of household savings held as shares and debentures. This had reached
10 per cent in 1992-93 following the stock market boom immediately after
the initial liberalisation, and has since has declined sharply
to only around 2 per cent in 1998-99.
So
it is mainly the greater uncertainty in the stock market which has driven
small investors back to the more secure forms of savings such as Public
Provident Fund and so on, and reduced exposure to the riskier forms
of saving. It is worth noting that recent fiscal measures, in terms
of reduction in interest rates on small savings and tax concessions
such as relief in terms of capital gains tax, are designed to cause
such investors to turn back to shares and debentures and reduce their
holding of public instruments of small savings. The rates of interest
on such instruments are now lower than they have ever been in the 1990s.
So
small savings cannot be see as the culprit for why real interest rates
continue to remain high. In fact, commercial banks are actually finding
difficulty in identifying desired borrowers at the prevailing rates
of interest. That is why bank holding of government securities has increased
substantially in recent years, rising from 26 per cent of total deposits
at the beginning of the decade to 34 per cent at the end of the decade.
And credit deposit ratios have fallen from the already low levels of
the early 1990s, to abysmally low levels of just above 50 per cent.
This
is more than an interesting irony, given the reduction of the Statutory
Liquidity Ratio as part of the financial reforms of the early 1990s.
This measure was designed to free commercial banks from necessarily
holding more than one-third of their assets in the form of government
securities, since the SLR was lowered to 26 per cent in 1993. It turns
out that the current position is that commercial banks are holding more
than Rs. 100,000 crore as government securities. This amounts to 35
per cent of the deposits, which is the same as the level that existed
prior to the financial reform measures ! So, while this measure did
operate to make borrowing more expensive for the Central Government
and therefore increased its interest burden, it has certainly not led
to greater access of the private sector to bank credit.
In
this context, why then have interest rates not declined in real terms
? If banks are hard put to find desirable domestic borrowers in a context
of domestic recession, and instead prefer to hold government securities,
then why are real interest rates not driven down further ?
The
answer lies in government policy, in a combination of fiscal policy
and financial liberalisation which has put upward pressure on interest
rates and affected the structure of government borrowing. Two financial
liberalisation measures of the early 1990s have been of special significance
in terms of government borrowing.
The
first was the decision to reduce and eventually to do away with deficit
financing as a means of financing the fiscal deficit. It is impossible
to justify this in rational economic terms, especially given the widespread
recognition that some amount of deficit financing (which is the cheapest
form of borrowing available to the government) has no inflationary implications.
The second was the reduction of the Statutory Liquidity Ratio, which
was already mentioned.
Both
of these measures had the effect of forcing the government into more
expensive open market borrowing, which in turn has been a significant
cause of the increase in the interest burden of the Central Government.
Meanwhile, the increasing resource crunch faced by the State Governments
has also forced them into more market borrowing on even more expensive
terms, since they are seen as less preferred borrowers than the Central
Government.
The
problem is that this is not just an issue of fiscal and monetary management.
It amounts to a huge burden on present and future taxpayers and potential
recipients of public services which are cut because of resource constraints,
given the large drain on the public exchequer because of interest payments.
This
need to maintain high real interest rates in turn becomes necessary
because the other aspect of financial liberalisation has meant that
the government must necessarily be concerned with the need to attract
or maintain capital in the country and prevent capital flight. Thus
financial liberalisation, far from reducing real interest rates, has
been the major contributory factor to their remaining at high levels.