Answer:
In the late
twenties the British Treasury (because of which this view came to be
known as the "Treasury View") that in all circumstances the government's
balancing its expenditure with its income, i.e. not resorting to any
fiscal deficit, is the most desirable policy for an economy. The British
colonial government in India, it may be recalled, had used precisely
this argument for pursuing deflationary policies even during the years
of the Great Depression because of the fall in its tax revenue. This had
succeeded in worsening the impact of the Depression on our economy, had
thwarted the industrialisation prospects which the
policy of protection of the inter-war period had opened up, and had
resulted in a wholesale running down of the economy's infrastructure. This
view in short was pervasive in the pre-Keynesian era. A slight variation
of this view is that the fiscal deficit must under all circumstances
never be allowed to exceed a certain small limit.
The theoretical articulation of the Treasury view was contained
in a White Paper of the British Treasury in 1929, called "Memorandum
On Certain Proposals Relating to Unemployment", and written in response
to Lloyd George's suggestion that Britain should undertake public works for
reducing unemployment which at that time stood at 10 percent (it was to reach
20 percent later). The White Paper argued that in any economy there is at
any time only a certain pool of savings, and that if more of it is used for
home investment then less becomes available for foreign investment, or if
more of it is used for public works financed by government borrowing, then
less is left over for private investment and foreign investment. It follows
then that public works can never increase total employment in an economy since
the increase in employment brought about by public works would be exactly
counterbalanced by the reduction in employment arising from reduced private
and foreign investment.
The fallacy of this argument was exposed by a young Cambridge
economist and pupil of Keynes, Richard Kahn, in a classic paper published
in 1931. The argument was simple: total savings in an economy depend,
among other things, on its total income. There is therefore no fixed
pool of savings, unless we assume that income cannot be augmented, i.e.
the economy is already at full employment, in which case the need for
public works does not arise. The Treasury View in other words was arguing
against proposals for reducing unemployment on the basis of a theory
that implicitly assumed that unemployment did not exist at all. In an
economy in which there is unemployment, in the sense of resources lying
idle owing to lack of aggregate demand, if investment increases then
these resources start getting used up directly and indirectly, through
various rounds of the "multiplier". As a result, income rises
and so do savings. Indeed, Kahn showed, the whole process of increase
in income and employment would go on and on, until an amount of savings
had been generated which exactly equalled the increase in home and foreign
investment. Far from there being a predetermined pool of savings above
which investment cannot increase, it is the total investment that determines
the total savings: the direction of causation in other words is precisely
the opposite of what pre-Keynesian theory believed. A corollary of Kahn's
theorem was that if the government expanded public works for generating
employment and financed these by borrowing, i.e. by enlarging the fiscal
deficit, then an exactly equivalent amount of savings would accrue in
private hands. A fiscal deficit in other words finances itself.
The argument advanced by Kahn in 1931 was central to Keynes'
opus The General Theory of Employment,
Interest and Money published in 1936. Keynes argued in a similar
manner that in a situation of "involuntary unemployment",
or "demand constraint", the government can
enlarge employment and output by increasing its fiscal deficit; far
from there being any adverse effects of this on any other stream of
expenditure, such government action in fact would stimulate the total
expenditure from these other streams via the "multiplier",
and not even generate any significant inflationary pressures. Moreover,
since the government can successfully pursue such a policy,
it must do so, because, as
Keynes put it, "it is certain that the world will not much longer
tolerate the unemployment which, apart from brief intervals of excitement,
is associated -- and, in my opinion, inevitably associated -- with present
day capitalistic individualism." Even if the government used the
fiscal deficit for no worthier purpose than "to dig holes in the
ground", that is still preferable to letting unemployment persist,
since "'to dig holes in the ground' paid for out of savings, will
increase, not only employment, but the real national dividend of useful
goods and services" (again because of the "multiplier").
To argue against the mitigation to human suffering that an increased
fiscal deficit can provide is therefore bad theory, the sheer "humbug
of finance".