Important reasons for this
effect include disparate supervisory and bankruptcy policies and procedures
both within and across national borders, complex corporate structures
and risk management practices that cut across different legal entities
within the same organisation, and the increased importance of market-sensitive
activities such as OTC derivatives and foreign exchange transactions.
In addition, the larger firms that result, in part, from consolidation
have a tendency either to participate in or to otherwise rely more heavily
on ''market'' instruments. Because market prices can sometimes
change quite rapidly, the potential speed of such a firms financial
decline has risen. This increased speed, combined with the greater complexity
of firms caused in substantial degree by consolidation, could make timely
detection of the nature of a financial problem more difficult, and could
complicate distinguishing a liquidity problem from a solvency problem
at individual institutions.
The importance of this concern
is illustrated by the fact that probably the most complex large banking
organisation wound down in the United States was the Bank of New England
Corp. Its USD 23.0 billion in total assets (USD 27.6 billion in 1999
dollars) in January 1991 when it was taken over by the government pale
in comparison to the total assets of the largest contemporary US firms,
which can be on the order of USD 700 billion.''
The systemic risk relates
not just to the financial sector itself. It also stems from the possible
impact this would have on weaker participants in the international financial
system, such as the developing countries. Along with the globalization
of finance, financial crises in individual countries and economic regions
have become the norm. And globalization has also meant that the effects
of a crisis in one part of the world are quickly transmitted elsewhere,
making contagion a word as often referred to in financial as in medical
parlance. The number of instances of crises of significant dimensions
has been growing. To quote one set of observers, among the major crises
that have accompanied the rise of finance have been: ''the crisis
in the Southern Cone in the late 1970s; the Third World debt crisis
of the early 1980s; the savings and loan debacle in the US in the late
1980s; the so-call ERM crisis in 1992; the Mexican crisis of 1994-95
and its follow-on crisis in Latin America; the East Asian crisis of
1997; the Russian meltdown of 1998; and the collapse of the real
in Brazil and its impact on the rest of Latin America.'' Besides
these there have been crises in individual countries in the 1990s such
as in India, Argentina and Turkey. Of these instances, in all cases
where the crisis affected developing countries, the impact on the real
economy as well the large proportion of people in those countries living
at the margins of subsistence has been devastating. One only needs to
refer here to the ''lost decade'' of the 1980s in Latin America
and the evidence on unemployment, poverty and deteriorating quality-of-life
indicators in Sputheast Asia.
These and other instances
suggest that the dominance of finance has substantially increased systemic
risk in the international financial system, with extremely adverse implication
for the progress of the real economy. Yet little is being done to prevent
the autonomous transformation of the system in directions that enhance
such risk. What is more, the influence of the finance capital is so
great that despite the weight of the evidence collated by the G-10 report,
it chooses to argue against intervention in the financial sector. In
its view: ''The complexity and different effects of the consolidation
processes taking place within the payment and settlement industry make
it impossible to categorise consolidation either as purely positive
or as purely negative from a social welfare viewpoint
In general,
at the present stage, it does not seem to be advisable for public authorities
to interfere with the market competition between financial institutions
or between payment and settlement systems. In fact, public authorities,
as a public policy objective, may wish to remove potential obstacles
to the consolidation process when it enables the market to develop initiatives
aimed at reducing risks and enhancing efficiency in the field of payment
and securities settlement.'' Clearly evidence, theory and logic
are no more the determinants of public policy.
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