The
''small round'' surveys of the NSSO are usually not considered to be
so good at capturing trends, because their smaller size makes them non-comparable
with the quinquennial large surveys. However, the 64th Round was a much
larger survey than normal (with a sample of 1,25,578 households: 79,091
in rural areas and 46,487 in urban areas, covering a total of 5,72,254
persons) and was concerned primarily with employment and migration.
It therefore allows us to examine the effects of one the biggest public
intervention in rural labour markets in several decades: the Mahatma
Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (MNREGS) which was
implemented from 2006-07 and by 2007-08 had formally spread to cover
all the districts of the country.
The
MNREGS has been critiqued from different angles and at many levels:
for the corruption and leakages; the patchy and often inadequate implementation;
the non-payment of minimum wages, and so on. But more recently, another
more unexpected kind of critique has emerged, and that too in the highest
policy-making circles: that the MNREGS is pushing up the wages of rural
workers in a manner that is raising costs of cultivation for farmers
and making it hard for them to compete in a very uncertain world economy.
To some it may come as a surprise that this is even seen as a criticism.
After all, surely the purpose of any such scheme would be at least partly
to improve the conditions and the bargaining power of rural labour?
And if that is then reflected in higher wages, should that not be proof
of its success?
At
the very least, surely government representatives should be happy when
the wages come closer to the legal minimum wage - that is, of course,
if they are at all serious about implementing their own laws. Such a
tendency for increasing wages should definitely be celebrated in a country
in which poverty and undernutrition are so rampant especially among
the rural labouring class. In addition, they should be happy because
higher wages in the countryside also mean increased effective demand
for rural goods and services, and contribute to reviving a very distressed
rural economy through the multiplier effects of workers’ spending out
of wages.
But what is the actual evidence of such a tendency of rising wages in
rural areas? The 64th Round of NSS allows us to compute the changes
in wages of male and female casual workers. Chart 1 shows the pattern
of rural wages (deflated by the CPIAL).
It is clear that for both male and female workers in rural areas, the
MNREGS has made a difference in terms of increasing the wage rates for
casual work. Real wages increased for both male and female workers,
and indeed more rapidly for female workers. This was in marked contrast
to the pattern in urban areas, where wages for casual work were more
or less stagnant for female workers.
Incidentally, it is also worth noting that casual wages in agriculture
did not increase in real terms according to this survey; rather they
remained stagnant. It should be noted that the tendency of higher rural
wages to push up costs of cultivation can be greatly overplayed, because
wage payment typically account for less than half and usually around
one-third of total agricultural costs. In any case, a public procurement
system that takes into account all paid labour costs (as the CACP measures
do) would adequately compensate for such costs, which would at most
lead to only a marginal increase in prices.
But to what extent can the increase in rural women’s wages be ascribed
to the effects of the MNREGS? Quite a bit, it turns out. It is well
known that women’s involvement in this scheme has been much greater
than was mandated by the 30 per cent reservation of employment and also
much greater than expected in many parts of the country. Chart 2 shows
that, while involvement in public works accounted for a much greater
proportion of economic activity in rural India, the increase was particularly
sharp for rural women. Between 2004-05 and 2007-08, the days of employment
of rural women in public works increased around 4.4 times, a remarkable
shift in terms of involvement in paid work.
An important reason for that emerges from Chart 3: the MNREGS has been
so successful in attracting women workers because there is hardly any
gender gap in the wages paid, unlike almost all other forms of work
in rural areas. In fact, the average wage received by women workers
in MNREGS was slightly higher than the average wage received by men.
This compares very favourably even with other form of public works,
but particularly with non-public work, where the gender gap remains
huge. Further, on average wages received in MNREGS were significantly
higher than those received by casual labour in other kinds of work.
A look at the trends in gender gaps in wages confirms this point. Chart
4 shows female wages as a percentage of male wages in both urban and
rural parts of the country. India already had one of the highest gender
gaps in wages in the developing world, and in urban India this gap worsened
in the first half of the past decade and remained at around the same
level thereafter. However, in rural India there has been a significant
reduction in the gender gaps in the latest period, and this can be related
very substantially to the impact of the MNREGS. This impact is both
direct, in terms of the higher wages paid to women in this scheme; and
indirect, in terms of the effects on women workers’ reservation wages
and bargaining power.
Surely, even the most diehard opponent of the scheme would find it hard
to argue that this is a bad thing. Indeed, even if the MNREGS has been
only marginally successful in raising male wage rates in the countryside,
the effect of the scheme in raising female wages is already a major
positive feature that should be applauded.
The gender-differentiated impact of the scheme in terms of the impact
on rural labour markets continues to be evident in terms of unemployment
rates, shown in Chart 5. For male workers, there has been no impact
on this feature: in fact, unemployment rates (by both Current Daily
Status and Current Weekly Status indicators) have continued to rise.
However, female open unemployment rates have shown decline, albeit relatively
marginal falls from their previous highs.
What
this does indicate is that, for all its flaws, limitations and difficulties,
this scheme has already had positive effects on women workers in rural
labour markets. It has caused real wages to rise, gender gaps to come
down and open unemployment rates of women to decrease. Before the scheme
was implemented, these were not really anticipated as likely outcomes.
But this positive impact may well have longer term benefical effects
on social and economic dynamics in rural India.