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Media
discussion of weather conditions over the past few weeks has focused
on drought - not only the drought that has already occurred in certain
parts of the country such as the western and central regions, but also
the possibility of more widespread drought following upon the possibility
of a poor monsoon in the coming crop season.
This has brought
back into focus a relationship that had been increasingly ignored over
the past few years : the role of weather conditions in general, and
rainfall in particular, in affecting agricultural output. There was
a time when the idea that Indian crop output was a (volatile) gift of
the monsoon rains, was taken for granted, and three to four year "monsoon
cycles" were used to explain cyclical fluctuations in total agricultural
output as well. And, a complex system of contingency planning for drought
had been developed, both to make the impact on production less through
seed availability of drought resistant varieties and through protective
irrigation, and to lessen the human suffering through food-for-work
responses. These had last been at work in 1987 when the worst drought
in post-independence years had been tackled so well as to lead not only
to much less suffering than earlier, but to a production effort which
led both to a less adverse effect than expected in 1987 and a much sharper
increase in production than normal in 1988. But over the 1990s, these
relationships between weather, production and welfare, and particularly
the role of the state in all this, had become ever less prominent in
public perception.
There are some
who have argued that Indian agriculture - kharif output in particular
- has finally freed itself from the earlier almost total dependence
on the monsoon, due to increased spread of irrigation, changed cropping
patterns and other technological changes. Others have been more sceptical,
suggesting that this is more a result of the unusually prolonged munificence
of the weather gods for more than a decade now, with average monsoon
rainfall across the country falling within the "normal" range
since 1988.
The answer to
this question becomes especially significant now, as drought conditions
are already evident in states like Rajasthan, Gujarat and Andhra Pradesh,
and when currently available predictions, although not yet of the Meteorological
Department, suggest that this year's monsoon rain may be less than normal.
This is why it is worth examining past trends in rainfall by state and
crop, and considering what implications these may have for assessing
the potential effect of the coming monsoon on the kharif output.
Of course, the
prior question is naturally : to what extent should we place faith in
the predictions of the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) ? Chart
1 plots the rainfall predictions of the IMD against the actual rainfall
patterns from 1988. It is evident that IMD provided very accurate predictions
until around 1993, and that subsequently both the extent and the direction
of changes in actual rainfall have diverged from those predicted. However,
both the predictions and the actuals have fallen within the "normal"
range (that is, within 10 per cent of the estimated norm) and so the
discrepancies in prediction have not really been noticed.
Chart 1 >>
The various charts
of Chart 2 plot the behaviour of actual monsoon rainfall (that is, over
the entire period of June-September in each year) by states, against
the all-India average. This provides some idea of the variation across
states, as well, as the degree of fluctuation in rainfall by states.
Some interesting insights can be gained from these charts.
Chart 2a >>
Chart 2b >>
Chart 2c >>
Chart 2d >>
Chart 2e >>
Chart 2f >>
Chart 2g >>
Chart 2h >>
Chart 2i >>
Chart 2j >>
Chart 2k >>
Chart 2l >>
Chart 2m >>
Chart 2n >>
Chart 2o>>
Chart 2p >> |
