If
anyone asked an average citizen of India today what her (or his)
most significant economic problem is today, my guess is that the
answer would be: rising food prices. The second issue that would
probably be highlighted is employment, most of all the difficulty
of finding decent paid employment or remunerative livelihood in
self-employed form, whether in agriculture or industry or services.
The third might be the problems of ensuring minimal health security
for the household, as well as of providing adequate education
for the children.
So, how far has the Finance Minister, who claimed in his Budget
Speech that he was concerned with improving the conditions of
the people, actually delivered on any of these issues? This is
in fact a Budget that is remarkable for its effective rejection
of the material concerns of most of the population. On the question
of food security and food prices, the FM did make some sympathetic
noises and talk about measures to improve agricultural productivity.
But on the more pressing question of ensuring adequate distribution
of food to prevent local speculation and rising prices, and to
make sure that the poor are able to access food at reasonable
prices, he was silent. To add injury to insult, he has actually
reduced the allocation for the food subsidy by Rs 424 crores!
This suggests that the Government does not see public food distribution
as an important means of curtailing food inflation, and moreover
is not really serious about the Food Security legislation that
it intends to enact.
On employment, the presumption once again seems to be that economic
growth on its own will deliver more jobs, even though all the
recent evidence suggests that without active labour market policies,
this is not likely. Some concessions are to be granted to small
and medium enterprises, especially in the export sector, but these
may be more than counterbalanced by the rise in excise duties
and indirect inflationary effects of the rise in petrol prices.
Meanwhile, there is hardly any increase in the allocation to the
National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (though it will be
argued that since this is demand-led, the amount may still increase)
and laughable amounts have been provided for various urban livelihood
schemes.
The regressive nature of the tax measures in the Budget provides
the strongest indication of the FM's apparent lack of concern
for the bottom three quarters of the population. Direct tax payers
– the corporations and the less than 5 per cent of the population
who even file income tax returns, let alone pay such taxes – have
been given a bonanza of tax reductions, which will cost the exchequer
an estimated Rs 26,000 crore (on top of benefits in the current
year that are projected to have cost about Rs 80,000 crore). But
indirect taxes have been raised across the board, including for
items of mass consumption, so that the common people will now
contribute disproportionately to the additional Rs 60,000 crore
that is being raised.
This rise is bound to generate further inflationary pressures,
especially given the increase in petrol and diesel prices that
will cause direct and indirect increases in many other prices.
In a context in which concerns about inflation are already becoming
marked, this is a strange move to make, and certainly one that
will negatively impact the ordinary citizen.
So what about social sector spending? The Finance Minister made
much of the substantial increase in plan allocation for social
services, and indeed, at Rs 26,000 crore it does seem significant
given the paltry nature of increases in this area in the past.
But non-plan revenue expenditure on social sectors is actually
slated to be cut by nearly Rs 6,000 crore, so the increase is
not as much has been trumpeted. Since the central government has
allocated only Rs 8000 crore more for school education, it seems
that the financial burden of ensuring the right to education is
to be thrust on the state governments. But many of them are already
facing fiscal crises and will find it difficult to raise the required
resources.
In fact, since the state governments are largely responsible for
social sector spending and still account for around 80 per cent
of total social sector spending in the country, it matters critically
what resources are made available to the states. Here, it turns
out that total support from the Centre to state and UT plans is
less than Rs 6500 crore, which is completely inadequate for the
most obvious needs of health, education, housing and other infrastructure.
In fact, this increase of around 7.5 per cent over the previous
year's spending will barely keep pace with inflation and is well
below the projected increase in GDP.
So the FM seems to have forgotten about most common people of
the country, barring the voters of his own constituency who will
benefit from some special schemes!