On the surface it appeared to be business as usual at the routine spring
meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank
held in April in Washington D.C. Ministerial statements, rudderless
discussions and lacklustre communiques brought to a close another set
of expensive conclaves that provide the Bretton Woods institutions,
especially the IMF, the mandate to continue doing more of the same.
This year, however, there was evidence of disquiet beneath the surface
calm. The source of that disquiet was not the 10,000-odd demonstrators
who congregated in Washington calling for the liquidation of the institutions
whose global ravage they felt was enough. These demonstrators, in any
case, were kept in control by what seemed to be an anti-guerilla operation
inspired by the Seattle experience. The disquiet stemmed from the perception,
expressed by mainstream critics in and around the spring meetings, that
despite its imperial rhetoric and public display of power in the economically
weaker locations of the world, the IMF had lost its moorings and was
decaying at the core.
The sense of that decay, though perceived by many people for quite
some time now, turned more pervasive in the wake of the utter failure
of the IMF and its policies, initially in Russia and more recently in
South-East Asia. That failure was two-fold. First, when confronted by
crisis, the IMF responded with its time-worn package, delivered at all
destinations irrespective of nature and circumstances. It demanded a
greater role for markets and a smaller role for the state, in return
for finance to tide over a crisis which markets had created in the first
place.
In Russia this policy served all the principal financiers of the IMF
well. It helped terminate and bury a system that had for long provided
an alternative, however imperfect, to developed capitalism. Not surprisingly,
the response to the economic chaos that followed the imposition of markets
was a willingness to throw good money after bad free-market policies,
till such time as the till was virtually empty. After that, the IMF
has had more of the same policies but little money to offer. Stanley
Fischer, the IMF's acting managing director, epitomises in terms of
style and viewpoint what the U.S. administration thinks an organisation
man at the IMF should be. Speaking in Moscow early in April he declared
that after ten years of experience in over 25 transition economies,
the evidence is clear that the basic economic reform and growth strategy
recommended by mainstream economists works.
He brushed aside the evidence of economic devastation in Russia by
saying that despite the many disappointments and setbacks in Russian
economic reform, what has so far been achieved in Russia should not
be underestimated. This ideologically blinkered perspective has proved
un acceptable even to mainstream economists like Jeffrey Sachs, who
had made it their mission to ensure the erstwhile Soviet Union's successful
transition to capitalism, and are hard put to explain their collective
failure.
In East Asia, which had been a dynamic pole of the world economy and
an important participant in world trade, the story proved different.
Initially an IMF package of more open trade and financial markets on
the one hand, and a sharp curtailment of government expenditure on the
other, threatened to transform slow growth and an economic recession
into a depression. Faced with that prospect, the IMF turned tail and
accepted rising deficits as a means to ensure the recovery, which foreign
capital inflows were expected to, but did not, deliver. This was in
the realm of practice. In theory, the IMF continued to attribute the
crisis to the conse quences of cronyism and non-transparency in the
financial markets, ignoring the role that the financial liberalisation
had played in creating the conditions that led up to the crisis.
Here again, one of the IMF's most vociferous critics turned out to
be an economist from the Bretton Woods stable. Joseph Stiglitz, till
recently the chief economist at the World Bank, has for long believed
that one area where markets are prone to fail is in the realm of finance.
The East Asian experience, according to him, illustrates not just this
home truth but much more. In particular it establishes the complete
bankruptcy of the policy package that the IMF (and we must mention the
Bank, too), has and continues to push through in crisis-afflicted developing
economies.
Doing the rounds prior to the spring meetings was an article that Stiglitz
had penned for the occasion in The New Republic. Stiglitz, while soft
on his own erstwhile employer, articulated a viewpoint which would make
even a liberal see red. The IMF, he states based on his experience during
the crisis, worked in tandem with the U.S. Treasury Department. The
latter had earlier sown the seeds of crisis by pressuring these countries
to liberalise their financial markets, which resulted in hot money flows
that triggered a speculative boom in the real estate markets. When that
boom went bust, capital withdrew and currencies collapsed. However,
though the source of the problem was private and not public profligacy,
the IMF imposed fiscal austerity as the solution, worsening the crisis.