Given
these presumptions, the profit-guarantee and terms being offered to
Enron were seen as a signal of India's commitment to making the
country an attractive and reliable host to foreign investment, and
opposition to the Enron project was even presented as anti-national
by some advocates of reform. These arguments were, of course, those
advanced publicly. But there was also a larger reform agenda hidden
behind the case being advanced in favour of the Enron project.
It
was widely accepted then and is accepted even now that much needs
to be done to improve the functioning of the State Electricity Boards.
Inadequate investments, poor maintenance and huge transmission losses
plague most SEBs. For the reformists, however, what was most galling
was the fact that for these and other reasons, such as the need to
price electricity keeping in mind other developmental and distributional
objectives, the SEBs were burdened with financial losses. Their prime
problem was to ensure that these losses were wiped out, independent
of the means by which that occurred. Combined with their obsession
with attracting foreign investment at any cost, this resulted in a
specific power reform programme. Privatisation, consequent to the
break-up of the electricity boards into generation, distribution and
transmission segments, as well as freedom to set prices were seen
as the essential ingredients of such a programme. An unstated presumption
was that if the SEBs were required to buy power from private providers
at economic' prices and bound by legal guarantees to meet
the financial commitments involved, they would be forced to raise
tariffs to cover costs'. Thus, projects commissioned on
terms like those offered to Enron were seen as a means of forcing
the state governments to dismember the SEBs and to change their pricing
practices in keeping with the reform agenda.
What
was missed in this perception was the fact that in a democratic polity,
policies to restructure the power sector can be pushed through only
if all stakeholders find them reasonable. In state after state, the
efforts to push through World Bank-inspired reforms in the power sector
have proved difficult if not impossible to implement. Agricultural
consumers are unwilling to accept higher charges when huge subsidies
and tax concessions are handed over to industry. Domestic consumers
see power as a facility that the state must provide at reasonable
prices to all. And many among the rich who believe even the present
rates are unreasonable find ingenious methods of bypassng the metering
system. This makes nonsense of the the effort to use private enterprise
in general and foreign investment in particular as the excuse to increase
tariffs to levels that could cover up the problems in the present
system.
Using
the Enron-type strategy in the name of reform only compounds the problem.
It is obvious to all that there are no markets working here nor is
their any reduction in the fiscal burden. Enron's profitability
is being protected by a government guarantee. And implementing that
guarantee for a high cost project like DPC is only increasing the
fiscal burden on the State.
The
Enron episode has in fact proved that the reform programme undertaken
on the grounds that subsidies need to be eliminated and the fiscal
burden on the government reduced is a complete farce. Vivek Monteiro,
the Secretary of the Maharashtra State Committee of the Centre of
Indian Trade Unions has been quick to point out that in the name of
eliminating subsidies the government has ended up providing a huge
subsidy to Enron. The PPA requires the government to find the resources
to pay DPC. Even assuming demand is equal to that supplied by DPC
at 90 per cent capacity utilization, and the price per unit is at
Rs.3.25 per unit, distribution and transmission losses would alone
take the price to Rs. 4.25 a unit. Taking account of the fact that
the average price recovered per unit sold by the MSEB works out to
only Rs. 2, the government has to provide the MSEB with and additional
Rs.2.25 per unit to meet its dues to the DPC. Since, just putting
in place a project commissioned on the Enron terms has proved inadequate
to either reduces distribution and transmission losses or raise the
tariff, the subsidy remains in place, though it accrues not to the
MSEB but to Enron whose profits are protected. In Monteiro's
view if Dabhol Phase II is commissioned the subsidy amount needed
to protect DPC's dollar profits would work out to more than the
total agricultural subsidy.
In
sum, an initiative that was launched as part of the ideology of reform
has ended by defeating the grounds on which the reform process is
commonly advocated. The question that remains is why the subsidy that
is finally being paid is being offered to Enron. It is known that
among the major creditors who have lent Enron huge sums on the strength
of the government's guarantee are a host of Indian banks and
financial institutions. If a similar credible guarantee had been provided
to an Indian firm, it could have accessed the same sources to earn
similar profits, which may not have been repatriated abroad in equal
measure. What benefit the policy has offered in terms of attracting
foreign investors who could deliver more than India corporates to
the country is by no means clear. And the fact that the policy has
only worsened the crisis in the power sector and elsewhere in the
economy has even begun to affect the credibility of the sovereign
guarantee that the government has offered. As noted earlier, creditors
have sat up and started questioning the feasibility of Phase II.
But the crisis cannot be
easily resolved. What is damaging is that the manipulative advocates
of reform have carried the process to an extent where redressing the
obvious blunder could prove costly. Under the prevailing terms and
conditions, if the government opts to pull back its commitment to
backing Dabhol Phase II and purchasing all the power it generates,
it would have to pay compensation to the tune of Rs. 35,000 crore.
Reforms are irreversible, even if disastrous, only because those who
devise them ensure that they can be reversed only at prohibitive costs.
If the ideal capitalism that the advocates of reform celebrate actually
ruled, all those who backed the project, including the "disinterested"
economists who defended it, would have been penalized. Unfortunately,
it does not.