The government's focus on the markets does not stop here. In recent
years, monetary policy has also served to prop up the market, a tendency
which has been strengthened by the latest credit policy announced at
the end of April. There are three ways in which implicit support for
the market has been provided. First, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI)
has over the years increased the flexibility of the banking system to
enter new areas and undertake investments of a kind that help capital
market growth. The latest such "innovation" is the permission granted
to banks to enter the insurance sector, despite their not-too-satisfactory
performance in areas such as mutual funds and housing finance, which
they had been permitted to diversify into in recent years.
Second, through repeated reductions in the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR)
required of banks, amounting to an overall 7 percentage points, liquidity
in the system has been considerably enhanced, allowing market players
easy access to funds, not just for warranted but also speculative investments.
The recent credit policy has gone considerably further in enhancing
liquidity available to the market players. In his statement making the
announcement, RBI Governor Bimal Jalan promised to "maintain easy credit
and (institute) a cut in CRR if required and if the inflation rate is
down." Obviously, Jalan is concerned only about the likely inflation
in the prices of commodities, and is not too concerned about the huge
inflation in the prices of financial assets that had occurred before
the recent downturn in the stock markets began.
In fact, the direction of monetary policy is such that it appears geared
to supporting high asset prices. As one observer has put it: "The proposed
Liquidity Adjustment Facility (LAF) to provide crunch funds for market
players (and sometimes to drain the rushes), the reduction in the minimum
daily requirement of CRR balances by banks from 85 per cent to 65 per
cent, a special facility for securities settlement quite similar to
an intra-d ay credit facility, a Debt Securities Clearing Corporation
and the rest are all meant to keep the financial market amenable to
the RBI's intentions."
Finally, over the reform years, especially in the recent past, interest
paid on deposits with the banking system has been substantially reduced.
The maximum rate of interest has fallen by as much as 3 percentage points.
And to keep pace with this, the government has recently launched an
effort to reduce interest rates on small saving schemes. This fall in
interest rates serves to push small savers into mutual funds and debt
and equity instruments, which offer or are expected to offer higher
rates of return, helping to sustain demand in the market. The tax incentives
being provided on investments in specific financial assets such as infrastructure
bonds only further this tendency.
In sum, the combination of fiscal and monetary policies that are being
put in place appear to have been formulated with one eye on the market.
And inasmuch as the market has been passing through a speculative phase
resulting in unsustainable price-earnings ratios, this effort to prop
up the market amounts to support for speculative practices. The problem
is that speculative activity tends to drive the market both ways, with
the smaller investors rushing in when the market is buoyant and exiting,
having burnt their fingers badly, when the market is in free fall. This
exaggerates the movements of an index, which have been given undue significance
as a pointer to the health of the economy under the current regime.
Not surprisingly, the Finance Minister is not too comfortable with the
wild swings in the index. He expressed his resentment when he declared
in his reply to the budget debate: "The manner in which stock markets
are behaving leaves much to be desired. It is very silly behaviour."
What he left unsaid is that he himself has been silly enough to place
all his bets on those very same markets.