The financial
crisis and subsequent recession proved to be the beginning of the end
for the Daewoo conglomerate, as it effectively collapsed under the mountain
of its own bad debts, which finally amounted to more than $80 billion.
Late last year, the chaebol was broken up into 12 separate businesses,
one of the largest of which was Daewoo Motor.
This company,
troubled though it was, was nonetheless one of the most respected corporate
names in South Korea. But it was part of an industry whose troubles
have only mounted in the past three years. The domestic market for cars
has shrunk to 1.5 million, which is less than half the capacity of the
domestic producers alone. The international market has also grown very
slowly, and there have been major moves towards concentration because
of this.
The shake-out has been greatest in South Korea, as
many of the car makers that began the decade with grand ambitions ended
it either under foreign control or swallowed by a rival. Thus, the fledgling
Samsung car brand was acquired by Renault of France. Kia was consumed
by Hyundai Motor, which itself has given up a 10 per cent stake to DaimlerChrysler.
Daewoo was considered for purchase by both General Motors and Ford.
But in September this year, Ford dropped its $7 billion bid for the
company and, allowing Ford and Fiat to come in with a much lower bid.
This triggered
off the final crisis. The crunch, when it came, was ultimately caused
by the Korean state allowing it, even encouraging it , to happen. Thus,
in early November Daewoos creditor banks suggested a "rescue
package" entailing 3,500 job cuts and other severe provisions.
This was rejected by the trade unions, and as a result, on November
8, the chief creditor bank - the state-owned Korea Development Bank
- cut off its supply of loans. This meant that Daewoo was forced to
default on short term debts to its suppliers. As a result, it was declared
bankrupt and put into court receivership.
All this
of course means that any new rescue package will be on terms that are
extremely harsh from the point of view of the company and its workers.
One estimate of potential job loss is as high as 500,000 counting the
impact on Daewoos suppliers as well. If the Ford-Fiat offer was
earlier seen as too predatory, any new offer is likely to be aggressively
carnivorous.
It is not
as if the assets to be picked up are actually valueless. Daewoo Motors
Changwon factory is supposed to be the most efficient in the world.,
and several other of its factories are impressive in terms of state-of-the-art
technology and highly productive workers. It also still has 20 per cent
of the Korean domestic market share. None of these qualities is likely
to prevent these assets from being sold for less than a song, or simply
thrown away and allowed to waste.
What is
worse, is that Daewoo Motor is not alone in facing such tribulation.
The fate of Hyundai Construction - one of the countrys largest
employers - hangs in the balance, as it finds itself unable to meet
the debt service of nearly $1 billion dollars which is due now. Once
again, the tightening of screws by the public sector banks which are
its creditors is the proximate cause of its woes. At the moment it is
being allowed to survive simply because another collapse at this point
might be too much for both political and economic stability.
This is
ironic. The apparent resolve of a supposedly popular government to allow
these crucial companies to collapse, stems from its desire to search
for and keep hold of the Holy Grail of "investor confidence".
But the collapse of these companies not only causes severe pain in terms
of unemployment and negative multiplier effects, it also creates widespread
social and political unrest in a country in which unions and social
movements remain relatively strong.
And this,
in turn, displeases investors and reduces their level of "confidence".
The Seoul stock market has already lost 50 per cent of its value over
the past year, making it the worst performing bourse in the world. The
contradictory effects of the governments desire to placate highly
demanding international capital may explain how this can happen despite
the supposed bouncy recovery of the economy.
In the
process, the challenge to metropolitan capital that was posed by the
emergence of such developing country conglomerates, has been converted
in South Korea into the more familiar (if more depressing) plea for
succour.