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On
the Fuss over US Interest Rates |
Mar
19th 2024. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
Discussions on macroeconomic policy in the US and
other high income countries tend to focus overwhelmingly
on central banks' interest rate adjustments, with
little clarity on what impact those changes have domestically.
|
|
Capitalist
Trap for Scientific Advances |
Mar
18th 2024, Prabhat Patnaik |
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There
is a paradox at the core of the efflorescence of science
that has occurred over the last millennium. In essence
this efflorescence has the potential to increase human
freedom immensely.
|
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The
Huge Danger Associated with Privatising Banks |
Sep
19th 2022, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
There are fundamental objections to the plan of the
government to privatise at least some of the public
sector banks. They centre around the fact that such
a move will change the pattern of deployment of credit,
away from productive activities towards speculation,
away from peasant agriculture towards big business
(with dangerous implications for peasant viability,
food security and employment), and away from domestic
to global destinations.
|
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Should
MFs call for Direct RBI Support? |
May
21st 2020, Parthapratim Pal and Partha
Ray |
|
The RBI, in deciding its rescue package needs to distinguish
between liquidity risk and solvency risk. Rescuing
mutual funds which, despite SEBI guidelines, chose
to invest in high-risk debt securities may encourage
such errant behaviour.
|
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The
Might of the US Fed |
Apr
16th 2020, C.P. Chandrasekhar |
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Under Covid-related uncertainty, as investors desert
global markets and seek safety in the US, the Fed
has decided to deploy swap lines to ease dollar-funding
strains in countries that matter. India is not yet
among them.
|
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Footloose
Capital and the Covid Shock |
Apr
7th 2020. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
The flight of footloose portfolio capital from India
has attracted attention because of its impact on stock
indices and the value of the rupee. But the bigger
danger is of a debt shock that can be more damaging
for the corporate sector.
|
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The
Liquidity Conundrum |
Nov
1st 2019, C.P. Chandrasekhar |
|
Financial
flow has shrunk drastically in recent months, affecting
the real economy in multiple ways. But the problem
is systemic, arising from investment decisions driven
by the euphoria of neoliberal reform that proved to
be wrong. Minor measures to increase credit flow may
not be the solution.
|
|
The
World Economy in Decline |
Oct
18th 2019, Prabhat
Patnaik |
|
Lowering
interest rates to revive economic activity has been
ineffective, because the global slowdown since 2008
is not the result of "dented animal spirits"
of capitalists, but the contractionary and inequalizing
tendencies of neoliberal capitalism.
|
|
Market
Jitters that carry a Message |
Oct
15th 2019, C.P.
Chandrasekhar |
|
The
sudden and steep rise in the repo rate signals a major
liquidity crunch in the US money market, and even
urgent action by the US Fed to bring rates down might
not be able to prevent an economic recession.
|
|
Criticism
and Criticism |
Dec
28th 2018, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
The
Modi government's demonetization move has been universally
criticized, but there are significant differences
between a neoliberal critique focused on the impact
on GDP and the Left's assessment that looks at the
impact on people.
|
|
The
Government-RBI Stand-off |
Nov
6th 2018, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
The
current discourse around government-RBI relations suggests
as if there are only two choices, one where market determines
RBI policy and the other where government determines
RBI policy. However, the root of the problem lies in
the structure of the neo-liberal regime itself, which
allows too few policy instruments to achieve a number
of objectives. |
|
India's
Central Bank and Finance Ministry Must Introspect Before
Rushing to Battle |
Nov
5th 2018, Sunanda Sen |
|
The
conflict represents the need for an honest attempt to
identify lapses in financial governance and remedies
that do not encroach on each other's responsibilities
as well as rights. |
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Can
the RBI’s open Market Operations help the Rupee? |
Oct
10th 2018, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
The
rupee's slide raises the question of whether India's
central bank should intervene by selling dollars to
prop up the currency. But past experience of such efforts
has yielded mixed results, so other measures may be
necessary. |
|
Ostrich-like
in Peacock Nation |
Oct
1st 2018, C.P. Chandrasekhar |
|
In
the midst of a crisis reflected in a collapsing rupee,
India's BJP government is acting ostrich-like, burying
its head in the ground. Nothing illustrates this better
than its much-delayed response to the collapse of the
rupee with a set of measures that are the opposite of
what is needed. |
|
The
Fall of the Rupee |
Sep
25th 2018, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
Falling
rupee requires immediate government action. Awaiting
an equilibrium that never comes would not only keep
squeezing the working people but would eventually make
the government run to the IMF and other financial institutions
in panic. Measures like raising interest rates, fiscal
compression, and using foreign exchange reserves have
their own fallouts. There have to be direct restrictions
on inessential imports combined with some controls on
capital outflows. |
|
The
Indian Economy in A Tailspin |
Sep
24th 2018, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
A
combination of direct import controls on inessential
items, reduction of petro-product prices, measures for
reducing the consumption of such products, and direct
taxation, especially on wealth, is the obvious way of
getting out of the tailspin in which the Indian economy
is currently caught. There is no alternative to these
measures if we are to avoid the fate of countries that
eventually run to the IMF and get caught in the vice-like
grip of "austerity". |
|
Foreign
Investor Appetite |
Sep
14th 2017, C.
P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
A
brief decline in portfolio inflows into equity markets
has raised the question whether foreign investment flows
into India have peaked. The evidence of investments
in debt markets suggest otherwise. That, however, need
not be all good news. |
|
NPAs:
All talk and no action |
Aug
4th 2017, C.P. Chandrasekhar |
|
The problem
of large NPAs of nationalised banks can be traced to
the neoliberal reforms in the financial sector and outside,
which prevent large government investments in infrastructure
and capital-intensive industries that are imperative
for development but too difficult a responsibility for
the private sector to shoulder. |
|
Growth
in the Time of a Credit Squeeze |
Aug
1st 2017, C.P.
Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
GDP
growth figures for the last few years have camouflaged
a deceleration in credit growth that has affected all
but the retail loans segment quite adversely. |
|
Wicked
Loans and Bad Banks |
Mar
8th 2017, C.P.
Chandrasekhar |
|
A
trail of defaults is ensuring that the NPA ratio is
not stabilising, as the RBI expected it would, once
assets misclassified as restructured and standard are
recognised as non-performing. |
|
Interest
Rates and the Use of Cash |
Feb
14th 2017, C.P.
Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
It
is ironic that under the most advanced form of capitalism
today demands are being made which would push us back
into the age of gold-money from where mankind had begun
its journey into the realm of money. |
|
Bond
Market Reversal |
Feb
14th 2017, C.P.
Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
Post-Trump
expectations of a shift back from an easy monetary policy
with low interest rates to reliance on a fiscal stimulus
for growth are reversing trends in global bond markets. |
|
The
Budget after Demonetisation |
Dec
21st 2016. C.P. Chandrasekhar |
|
If
the government adheres to its deficit targets, this
could imply a substantial cut in capital expenditures
or social expenditures or both which would worsen the
contraction set off by demonetisation.
|
|
Supreme
Court should Frame an Eleventh Question on Demonetisation |
Dec
15th 2016. Prasenjit Bose and Zico Dasgupta |
|
Whether
the demonetisation scheme declared through the November
8 notification qualifies as a fiscal or economic policy
is a vital question that merits the attention of the
Supreme Court.
|
|
Rajan's
Exit |
Sep
15th 2016, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
The
reason for the government's dithering over an extension
of Raghuram Rajan's term, which led to his decision
not to ask for one, cannot be attributed to his stance
on interest rates. |
|
An
Overburdened Instrument |
Sep
7th 2016, C.P. Chandrasekhar |
|
The
interest rate that is seen as being the principal instrument
for macroeconomic management is proving to be a blunt
tool when combatting inflation or promoting growth. |
|
Unexpected
Inflation |
Sep
2nd 2016, C.P.
Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
The
return of inflation, even if moderate, at a time when
India is experiencing a normal monsoon and after a long
period of inflation-targeted monetary policy is surprising. |
|
The
Business of Wilful Default |
Aug
3rd 2016, C.P. Chandrasekhar |
|
Adventurous
lending followed by wilful default that has become more
common in recent years, is linked to the change in banking
practices and the pursuit of quick profits after liberalization. |
|
The
Return to Retail Lendinge |
Aug
2nd 2016, C.P.
Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
After
having retreated from retail lending in the years since
2005-06, banks burdened by NPAs in areas like infrastructure
seem to be returning to the retail market. How far can
this go? |
|
The
Global "New Normal" is Not New- But it is still
a real concern |
Jun
21st 2016, C.P.
Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
Global
growth rates of the last five years are similar to those
in the past, but now they are accompanied by unprecedented
monetary expansion that seems to have little impact. |
|
Bad
Loans, Lending Behaviour and Growth |
Jun
7th 2016, C.P.
Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
As
interested observers focus on the bad loans, accumulating
in the books of India’s commercial banks, the implications
it has for lending behaviour and growth are less explored.
|
|
No
Clue to the Future |
Apr
27th 2016, C.P.
Chandrasekhar |
|
The
failure of the G20 countries to agree to an action plan
not just to ensure recovery but prevent a second slump,
may lead to countries adopting beggar-thy-neighbour
policies. |
|
The
Phenomenon of Negative Interest Rates |
Apr
21st 2016, Prabhat
Patnaik |
|
Even
the unconventional measure of charging negative interest
rates, as the author says, is unlikely to end the recession
because capitalism today is in a deep structural crisis.
|
|
Interest
Rate Conundrum |
Mar
15th 2016, C.P.
Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
With
interest rates and bond yields turning negative in many
developed countries, the efficacy of monetary policy
as a countercyclical instrument is in question. |
|
Interesting
Turn Around |
Oct
14th 2015, C.P.
Chandrasekhar |
|
The
recent rate cut by the RBI reflects a shift in its policy
stance and signals that it has accepted that the biggest
threat in India today is not inflation, but deflation. |
|
No
Case for Complacence |
Oct
5th 2015, C.P.
Chandrasekhar |
|
The
yuan depreciation can trigger a chain of events that
would convert the creeping world recession into another
full-fledged crisis and India cannot be immune from
contagion. |
|
The
Spectre of the Thirties |
Jul
7th 2015, Prabhat
Patnaik |
|
The
world economy today is reminiscent of the 1930s where
competitive easing of monetary policy is not boosting
aggregate demand and fiscal policy is barred by finance
capital. |
|
Government
and RBI: No real stand-off over macro policy |
May
8th 2015, C.P.
Chandrasekhar |
|
The
current stand-off is more of a government effort to
regain influence over macroeconomic management, as the
government is accountable to the people whereas the
RBI is not. |
|
Asian
Banks in Trouble |
Jan
2nd 2015,, C.P.
Chandrasekhar |
|
Emerging
market economies in Asia are confronted with signs of
bank fragility owing to overexposure to the private
sector, whose mounting external debt compounds the problem. |
|
The
RBI Governor’s Unwarranted Remarks |
Jan
2nd 2015,, Prabhat
Patnaik |
|
Dr.
Rajan’s criticism of the debt-waiver scheme for farmers
underscores the fact that 'social banking" gets
progressively eliminated in the era of neo-liberalism.
|
|
Bad
News in the Good Days |
Dec
16th 2014, C.P.
Chandrasekhar |
|
While
the collapse in oil prices and moderation in food price
inflation are good news for the Modi government, there
is a real danger of it turning complacent as a result. |
|
On
High Interest Rates |
Oct
13th 2014, C.P.
Chandrasekhar |
|
The
RBI's decision to follow a restrictive monetary policy
seems to have been influenced by the inflow of foreign
finance, even if that is at the expense of growth.
|
|
The
Herd Instinct at Work? |
Sep
26th 2014, C.P.
Chandrasekhar |
|
The
SENSEX is driven by herd instinct of FII inflow coming
with assumptions which are at best speculative; the
trend may get reversed in case of a rise in the interest
rate.
|
|
Passing
the Buck |
Sep
19th 2014, C.P.
Chandrasekhar |
|
Instead
of looking at developed countries' monetary easing,
the RBI should explore policy alternatives to restrict
capital inflow and reduce India's external vulnerability.
|
|
Money,
Debt, and Deficit |
Jul
30th 2014, Arnab
K. Chowdhury |
|
As
debt is necessary to sustain the monetary system, hypothetical
repayment of all debts can make the monetary system
collapse and has the capacity to stall the real economy.
|
|
The
Rupee's Climb |
May
23rd 2014, C.P.
Chandrasekhar |
|
A
surge of capital inflow appreciated the rupee while
the RBI is not keen to intervene due to inflation implications.
Rupee may stabilise or start depreciating again later.
|
|
Rajan's
Target: Inflation or the poor? |
Mar
18th 2014, Rohit |
|
The
RBI Governor's call for inflation targets to be set
by the parliament is not a demand for providing relief
to the poor, but a gesture to assure global finance
capital.
|
|
Off-target
on Monetary Policy |
Feb
25th 2014, C.P.
Chandrasekhar |
|
The
Urjit Patel recommendations for RBI to pursue the single
objective of inflation targeting via interest rate control
follows textbook Neo Keynesian model that belie recent
experiences. |
|
No
Method in this Confusion |
Feb
21st 2014, C.P.
Chandrasekhar |
|
The
new RBI Governor struggles to maintain stability in
the face of the threat of a US tapering even as other
countries face turmoil in the absence of control on
capital flows.
|
|
A
New Growth Consensus? |
Oct
28th 2013, C.P.
Chandrasekhar |
|
Recent
measures by the RBI and the government emulate the path
of fuelling growth by easy credit for specific sectors
but that path is fraught with the risk of bank fragility.
|
|
Is
there a Flight of Capital from India? |
Oct
10th 2013, C.P.
Chandrasekhar |
|
Capital
flight from India aggravated the overall position of
rupee, but the country's balance of payments position
is the fundamental weakness which needs to be addressed.
|
|
'Loans
First' – Explaining Money Creation by Banks |
Sep
30th 2013, Arnab
Kumar Chowdhury |
|
In
fractional reserve banking, the description of banking
as "accepting deposits for lending" distorts
the perspective in which economics of banking is perceived
and analyzed.
|
|
What
Defines Headline Inflation? |
Jul
30th 2013, C.P.
Chandrasekhar |
|
Barely
a year and a half since the government started computing
headline inflation based on CPI rather than WPI, it
has returned to focusing on WPI-based inflation.
|
|
Redistributing
Regulatory Power |
May
21st 2013, C.P.
Chandrasekhar |
|
The
FSLRC's far-reaching recommendations seek a fundamental
redesign of India's historically evolved financial regulatory
framework in favour of a liberalised financial sector.
|
|
In
the Middle of a Muddle |
Apr
21st 2012, C.P.
Chandrasekhar |
|
While
the RBI is being advised to cautiously stimulate demand
and growth, at the same time keeping a close watch on
inflation, the Finance Ministry is being cajoled into
stoking inflation by hiking a range of prices.
|
|
The
Dollar Drain |
Apr
16th 2012, C.P.
Chandrasekhar |
|
With
the government announcing the new liberalised norm for
remittances for Indian residents, there has been a spurt
in capital outflow from the country. The rising Indian
appetite to invest abroad could prove a problem if uncertainty
with regard to rupee rises, as such uncertainty could
trigger capital flight in a liberalised environment.
|
|
The
Price of Growth |
Jan
27th 2012, C.P. Chandrasekhar |
|
The
early signs of a reduction in the rate of inflation
have been used as evidence to make a case for lower
interest rates. However, there is no reason to believe
that within the current policy regime, rate cuts would
not aggravate inflationary trends once again.
|
|
The
Lurking Debt Problem |
Dec
19th 2011, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
Rising
interest rates in the domestic market have been encouraging
large firms in the Indian corporate sector to resort
to foreign borrowing to finance domestic expenditures.
In particular, there has been significant rise in the
shares of commercial borrowings and short-term debt
in total external debt. This tendency is increasing
external vulnerability. |
|
Evading
an Inflation Cure |
Sep
7th 2011, C.P. Chandrasekhar |
|
The
changing responses of the government to persisting inflation
suggest that the government has given up on the task
of curbing inflation and expects that people would learn
to live with the phenomenon and adjust. Thus the focus
on the long-run supply constraints in agriculture as
being the reason for the recent inflationary surge is
to evade rather than address the problem of inflation.
|
|
Trading
Growth for Inflation |
May
27th 2011, C.P. Chandrasekhar |
|
If
inflation is influenced by global developments, adjusting
domestic interest rates may do little to redress the problem.
The RBI's latest interest rate manoeuvre may thus end
up being successful in contracting demand and growth,
but it is likely to fail to rein in inflation.
|
|
Revisiting
Capital Flows |
|
May
4th 2011, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
In
a recent move the IMF surprised many by revising its
position on the use of capital controls and making a
case for them in special circumstances. It has followed
this up with an analysis of capital flows to developing
countries, which also explains its partial rethink on
the use of capital controls by developing countries. |
|
Policy
Paralysis and Inflation |
Feb
3rd 2011, C.P. Chandrasekhar |
|
The
price trends over the last one-and-a-half years suggest
that inflation is being driven by factors which are
structurally embedded in the economic environment generated
by the government's neoliberal reform agenda adopted
for two decades now. Further, neoliberal thinking is
leading not only to policy paralysis and absurd reasoning,
but also to policy responses that are contrary to what
is needed. |
|
(Un)Common
Suffering: Distributional impact of recent inflation in
India |
Jan
6th 2011, Rajarshi
Majumder and Subhadip Ghosh |
|
Recent
inflation in India is special both because of its peaks
and its persistence. It is argued that unlike during
2008-09, recent inflation is due to structural problems.
Further, a distributional analysis reveals that its
impact is not shared equally. People in the lower income
groups have been facing uncommon difficulties, as their
purchasing power seems to have been halved over the
last four years. |
|
Disarray
in the Global Economy |
Oct
20th 2010, C.P.
Chandrasekhar |
|
The
injection of cheap money at home to invest in emerging
markets for profit by the US Federal Reserve, and its
pressure on emerging market economies to allow their
exchange rates to appreciate, in the hope that it would
expand US exports and reduce its imports and facilitate
a recovery, are a sure recipe for conflict. |
|
Ignoring
Asset Price Inflation |
Sep
22nd 2010, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
The
spike in stock prices and the strengthening of the rupee
are signals that it is time the government acted to
regulate the capital flows that are generating these
speculative trends. But while the government and the
central bank are responding to inflation in the prices
of goods, they are choosing to ignore the much sharper
inflation in asset prices. |
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