The French economist J B Say had believed that there could never be a problem of aggregate demand in any economy, that whatever was produced was ipso facto demanded.

Figures on India's balance of payments in financial year 2023-24, recently released by the Reserve Bank of India, have added to the hype on India's growth story.

At the time of writing, the 13th ministerial meet of the World Trade Organisation (WTO) is under way in Abu Dhabi. Among the many issues that are being discussed are two of concern for less developed countries generally and India in particular.

Imagine a country that is exposed to relatively unrestricted trade. There are two obvious problems that it can face because of this trade policy: the first is a balance of payments problem because its exports are insufficient relative to its imports.

The wisdom of pursuing a strategy of export-led growth has been discussed among development economists for at least half a century, ever since the so-called East Asian ''miracle'' started to be contrasted with the comparatively sluggish growth experience of countries like India that were pursuing, in the World Bank's language, an ''inward looking'' development strategy.

Liberal bourgeois writers tend to explain the problems that arise under capitalism not by the immanent tendencies of the system but by the capriciousness of particular governments.

When food prices in global trade rise, they go up across the world. But the opposite movement of falling trade prices does not necessarily lead to falls in low and middle income countries. We show how this plays out with wheat prices.

At first look, the evidence is worrying. Goods exports from India in June dropped to an 8-month low of $33 billion having fallen sharply by 22 per cent year-on-year. Moreover, that decline was not a one-off event.

Several major economists have put forward theories predicting a falling tendency of the rate of profit under capitalism; Marx had seen in this fact an awareness on their part of the essential transitoriness of the capitalist system.

The differences in performance between less developed economies have tended to blur the North-South divide in the global distribution of balance of payments surpluses and deficits. But for most, that divide remains a reality.

The official Economic Survey ignores real economy trends which need to be urgently addressed, as is the case with emerging balance of payments fragilities.

India's current account deficit for the second quarter (July-September) of 2022-23 has reached a massive $36.4 billion which is 4.4 per cent of the gross domestic product, higher than at any time in the last nine years.

The Ukraine War and rising global prices of fuel have had major effects on the external trade of many developing countries. But how much of India's poor trade performance and growing trade deficit since January 2022 can be attributed to such factors?.

A spike in India's imports from China and a widening of the trade deficit it records with that country points to fundamental weaknesses in India's industrial development trajectory.

What is called OPEC+, that is the 13 members of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) together with 11 other petroleum exporting countries led by Russia, decided on October 5 to cut their oil production by 2 million barrels per day, starting from November.

A spike in India's foreign exchange reserves is a surprising feature of the period since March 2020 when the economy has been reeling under the damaging effects of the pandemic. But that trend is no cause for celebration.

India's increasingly open capital account is facilitating large gross and net inflows of foreign capital into the country. But while this does not translate into increased real investment, it imposes a large foreign exchange cost on the economy.

A challenge set by the Covid-19-induced economic crisis that would be difficult to address is the external debt crisis engulfing developing countries. While the G-20 with its Debt Service Suspension Initiative appeared to recognise the problem, the evidence indicates that the international community is unwilling to do what is needed.

India's recent policy push to promote domestic electronics manufacturing is pivoted on a belief in the ability of large foreign firms to support the development of an advanced parts and components ecosystem. India might end up being a digital colony if the structural weakness of the industry cannot be overcome.

Weakness in India’s external sector cannot be used as an excuse for the lack of increased fiscal spending by the Indian government.

China's use of yuan-denominated central bank swaps, while enhancing its influence, is a source of support for developing countries in an unequal international order.

As a trade promoting arrangement the RCEP is no game changer, but it possibly serves China’s interests by giving China a freer access to a 'common market' of considerable size and significance, without the presence of India and the United States, which share the objective of wanting to counter China's rise.

The emergence of a trade surplus in India's balance of payments over the first five months of 2020-21 does not signal what it would in normal times. A closer analysis of the trade data traces the surplus to the behaviour of an economy in recession.

The high levels of reserves are the result of reduced merchandise trade deficit and overall trade surplus, which includes the benefits of the oil price decline. It indicates recession and output contraction accompanying the pre- and post-Covid crises and thus, the weakness of the economy.

Under the garb of removing supply chain disruptions in essential medical goods, the WTO is trying to expand free trade in electronic medical equipments and facilitating the North's agenda of consolidating the market shares of their firms, despite knowing that it can disrupt the production capacities of developing countries like India.

Using economic weapons to temper China's stand on the border question would not be easy for India. The presence of Chinese firms in a relatively inconsequential area such as mobile apps was an easy and convenient lever for it to use.

Continuing to welcome FDI without qualifications will further weaken the domestic capabilities and sovereignty of India. The government instead extend the new rule for FDI screening to all countries defined in terms of livelihood and data security.

The recently concluded EU-Vietnam FTA is likely to increase Vietnam's exports at the expense of other developing countries, triggering competitive policy shifts inimical to long term development. In India, it is likely to be exploited by a neoliberal government to push its agenda to sign similar agreements.

The Indian industry has been hollowed out by rapid trade liberalization without the requisite preparation to face cheaper imports. Transition from dependence on China for critical products to self-sufficiency would require some fundamental policy changes.

As prospects of the collapse of the WTO Appellate Board draws near, "emerging markets" like India cannot take even the current level of "free" trade for granted. They must rethink the open-door policy, especially the free flow of finance.

Support for a free trade agreement which creates unemployment, or lower incomes for the peasantry, cannot be justified under any circumstance. Prabhat Patnaik argues that people were right demanding that the government should come out of the RCEP.

Signing the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership would increase destitution and unemployment and also widen the current account deficit, worsening the coming recession.

In the absence of strategic policy support that help build up indigenous capabilities and create the incentives for localisation, extensive liberalization through RCEP will only worsen domestic production, lower export and FDI flows and compromise national security for India.

As India's ICT import dependence on China grows, it must ensure that the RCEP architecture does not undermine the capital-intensive efforts of indigenous manufacturers in high technology industries.

External debt is emerging as a potential concern for many Asian developing countries, even for those whose aggregate external debt to GDP ratios do not appear to be large. This is because of the growing importance of private bond holders in such debt, even as capital flows to the region turn more volatile.

Which emerging markets have seen significant depreciation of their exchange rates? And should “currency manipulation” be blamed for that?

In the U.S.-China tariff war, there is no economic gain to be derived by either side. But the U.S. is pushing ahead by bringing in the national security angle because the political stakes are too high.

World trade is slowing. While the US triggered trade war with China is part of the explanation, the real driver is a loss of momentum in the world economy.

C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh points out that India's rising gold imports are primarily responsible for its growing trade deficit; so far no action has been taken by the Modi government to prevent these unnecessary imports.

The decision of the US government under Trump to end the waivers from sanctions on imports of oil from Iran that were given to eight countries could trigger a spike in oil prices. That can have adverse implications for India's balance of payments stability and inflation trends.

China's trade with Asian developing countries is more significant than ever - but not always in ways that benefit them.

Remittances from non-resident Indian workers, especially in the Gulf, have helped to conceal the failure of liberalization to deliver the promised export boom.

China is seeking a more influential role in the global economy, and it hopes to achieve this through greater use of its currency by others.

In the light of rescinding, at the behest of the clout of jewellery traders, the notification requiring KYC details for purchase of gold, the government will find it difficult to maintain its 'pro-poor' and 'anti-corruption' image as its moves seem to be, more for optics and hype than substantive change.

Large capital inflows have boosted foreign exchange reserves and resulted in the rupee strengthening. Although exports have not done badly, the widening trade deficit owing to a rise in the import bill can worsen the current account position and create a vicious circle.

Rising interest rates in the domestic market have been encouraging large firms in the Indian corporate sector to resort to foreign borrowing to finance domestic expenditures. In particular, there has been significant rise in the shares of commercial borrowings and short-term debt in total external debt. This tendency is increasing external vulnerability.

The presence and growth of foreign banks in emerging markets pose important challenges, both for these countries and the international financial system. Yet the debate on banking re-regulation before and after the crisis focuses largely on the experience of the developed countries, ignoring the implications of developments in the emerging economies.

There has been much media celebration about the recent signing of the Japan-India Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement. This article examines some of the features of the agreement and considers their implications for domestic economic strategies and processes in India.

It is now evident that the world economy is in for another spate of major problems, with recession and stagnation likely to affect the largest economies and altering prospects for growth elsewhere. This article examines recent patterns of the Indian economy’s external engagement, in order to gauge how well equipped it is to face this uncertain future.

The sovereign debt crisis of Greece has led to appeals for a reduction in the size of public debt in countries worldwide. Given that increasing taxes and reducing expenditures may not be considered viable options, there would soon be strident calls for disinvestment and privatisation aimed at generating the resources needed for this.

The most quoted indicator of the success of economic reform is the noticeable rise in the inflow of foreign direct investment during the last decade and a half. However, the available Indian evidence on the performance of foreign direct investment companies suggests that their balance of payments consequences are adverse.

Many of the financial regulatory proposals now being considered by developed countries might not be feasible given the legally binding commitments these countries have made under GATS with respect to financial services liberalisation. Such WTO rules may therefore get ignored or GATS may require to be renegotiated, for the necessary financial sector reforms to take place.